[27-DEC-2022] #OviWatch... And then there was only #99

When Our Hero Alex Ovechkin scored his 798th, 799th, and 800th goals (and a hat trick), I was ecstatic for him, but when he scored 801st and 802nd goals against Winnipeg, giving him 22 goals over 36 games this season, I found myself bouncing off the walls for days. Today, the Caps are in New York taking on the Rangers, and I have no doubt they will be gunning for the Captain. I'm still bouncing off the walls!

At .611 goals per game this season, Ovi is on pace to score 50 again... his goals/game average for his career is .612. 

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +92
Alex Ovechkin        1310      802

If Ovi gets to 50 goals this season, it will put him at 830 goals in 1,356 games. 

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +64
Alex Ovechkin        1310      830

On November 9, 2015, I went out on a limb and said I believed Ovi would beat Gretzky's record one day. At the time, Ovi had only 483 goals. Now, I could not have predicted two seasons shortened by the COVID-19 pandemic (grumble), but at the time, I was just about the only hockey blogger talking about it. Today, that has all changed; it started last season, and now, it's the talk of the hour: it's not if Ovi will catch and surpass Gretzky; it's when. 

Today, I am going to go way out on a limb. 

Gretzky played in 1,487 games in his illustrious career. Ovi has played in 1,310 and has 176 games to catch Gretzky to do it faster than Gretzky did. 

There are 46 games left this season. Add 82 games for 2023-24, and 48 games for 2024-25 for the total of 176 games. If Ovi keeps up his .611 goals per game, he will be on pace to score 107 goals over those 176 games, taking his career total on game 48 of his 2024-25 season to 909. 

Yes, I believe that Ovi can do it faster than Gretzky did. 

Now, to check my math:

22/36 = .611

82+46+48=176

176 * .611 = 107.536

802 + 107 = 909. 

My blog isn't one of the ones the big guys - Japers' Rink, Russian Machine Never Breaks - ever picks up on. It's quiet, and I'm probably its only reader. I don't publish regularly, but I wanted to get this out there in front of whoever happens across my blog. What am I going on here? Sheer gut instinct. I'm not a statistician; I have to redo my numbers repeatedly to check myself. But my gut instincts have not been bad over the years... so we'll see.

It's December 27, 2022, and I say Ovi will beat Gretzky's record and take fewer games than Gretzky played to do it. 

[12-DEC-2022] #OviWatch at 30 games played

Our Hero, Alex Ovechkin, now has 797 goals at (17/30) games played this season; he has not missed a game so far. The Caps' record is less than stellar so far this year, but they have just won their fourth in a row - a good streak to keep building on! 

Here's where he stacks up now:

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +97
Gordie Howe          1767      801        + 4
Alex Ovechkin        1304      797

I'm really rooting for Ovi this season! He is scoring at a rate of 0.566 goals per game, which puts him on pace for 46 goals this season, if he plays all 82 games. If he hits that, he will be at 826 career goals, well ahead of Gordie Howe, and he will have to score only 68 goals over the next three seasons to catch Gretzky (22 goals per season, with one season at 23 goals). 

Prediction (2022-23) 45 goals:

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +69
Alex Ovechkin        1362      825

Prediction (2023-24) 35 goals:

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +34
Alex Ovechkin        1442      860 

Prediction (2024-25) 30 goals: 

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Alex Ovechkin        1522      895

Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        -1

Prediction (2025-26) 25 goals:

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Alex Ovechkin        1522      920

Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        -26

I admit my math isn't always perfect, and I've probably erred somewhere here, but I stand by my numbers: When Ovi retires he will have a minimum of 920 goals, leaving Wayne Gretzky in the dust. All 920+ will have been scored for the same team, too!

I'm also saying this: If the Caps get both Wilson and Backstrom back this season, we will go deep in the playoffs, and may well win our second Stanley Cup. I want it to happen, so I am willing them to come back healthy and ready to play! 

#LetsGoCaps!

[23-AUG-2022] #OviWatch Predictions for 2022-23

 At the close of the 2021-22 season, Our Hero Alex Ovechkin had scored FIFTY GOALS! FIFTY!!!! That puts him firmly in the #3 position of all time, with four years remaining on his contract, which ends in 2025-26. How does he stack up? Let's take a look...

Player                 GP     G      vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky         1487    894    +114
Gordie Howe           1767    801    + 21
Alex Ovechkin         1274    780 

Ovi needs 115 goals in four years. That's 28.75 goals a year...

In 2022-23, I will go on record as saying I believe Ovi will score a minimum of 40 goals in a minimum of 70 games played. 

Player                 GP     G      vs. Ovi

Wayne Gretzky        1487    894    + 74

Alex Ovechkin        1314    820

Ovi is definitely going to come out of this season, barring injury, ahead of Gordie Howe, and closer than he is now to Gretzky. 

Also, Uncle Vladimir can go suck rocks. 

[16-JUN-2022] #OviWatch #Backstrom #LetsGoCaps!

At the close of the 2021-22 season, Our Hero Alex Ovechkin had scored FIFTY GOALS! FIFTY!!!! That puts him firmly in the #3 position of all time, with four years remaining on his contract, which ends in 2025-26. How does he stack up? Let's take a look...

Player                 GP     G      vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky         1487    894    +114
Gordie Howe           1767    801    + 21
Alex Ovechkin         1274    780 

Ovi needs 115 goals in four years. That's 28.75 goals a year. Now, obviously, one can't score .75 of a goal, so we'll round up. If Ovi scores 30 goals a season for the remaining four years of his career, that would give him 120 goals, and put him firmly in first place. Then maybe Gretzky will give him a stick... 

Incidentally, last season, Ovi only played 77 games, putting his goals/game average at 0.64935, which is pretty damn good for a 38-year-old! 

On another note, the Russian invasion of Ukraine this year can't have helped his mental health, given his wife, his sons, and his parents were - and are - in Russia. Please don't try and tell me that he should speak out against the invasion, in favor of LGBTQIA+ rights, etc. when Putin could quite literally disappear his entire family without a trace if he chose to speak against him and nobody would dare to say a word. I just hope he can get out to come back next fall - and that his family comes with him this time. All of them. I am very much afraid that Putin will make him choose between his family and the NHL, and that would be awful for us as Caps fans, but for him as a human being. 

#Backstrom

Poor Nicky... that hip injury is just getting worse, and he's going to have to do something about it. Sure, he still has all the hockey smarts he ever did, but the speed just is not there, and I feel that with every step my 56-nearly-57-year-old-bones take. Surgery in the off season is a distinct possibility, and from what I am seeing on other sites, the return from the type of surgery he needs would be an long uphill battle. I know he and Ovi want to retire together, and I know as surely as I know my name that he wants to be on the ice when - not if, when - Ovi takes the crown away from Gretzky. I hope the hockey gods will let it happen, but more importantly, I hope Backstrom's health improves and allows him to continue playing that long... 

[27-Jul-2021] Wow... COVID sucks.

Welcome to 2021.

The Caps just re-signed our hero Alex Ovechkin to a five year deal!

At the end of the 2020-21 season, Ovi had scored a career total of 730 goals in 1,197 games. Nobody can say that 2019-20 or 2020-21 were normal seasons. 

So, where do we stand? 

Player                 GP     G      

Wayne Gretzky         1487   894 +164

Gordie Howe           1767   801 + 71

Jaromir Jagr          1733   766 + 36

Brett Hull            1269   741 + 11

Marcel Dionne         1348   731 +  1

Alex Ovechkin         1197   730

I think it is completely safe to say that Ovi will catch Marcel Dionne this season. If he plays all 82 games, I also believe Jagr's #3 position is in reach. Ovi's career average is .61 goals per game (OK, .609857); over an 82-game season, that amounts to 50 goals... Last season, he was a big chunk off that average, with 24 goals across 45 games, putting him at .533 goals/game. Over an 82-game season, that amounts to 43 goals. So, splitting the difference in a completely unscientific fashion, 46 goals still puts Ovi above Jagr at the end of the year. 

I believe if Ovi stays healthy this season, he can do it. 

With 165 goals to beat Gretzky and 5 years to score them, Ovi needs 33 goals per year. 

It's still within reach, but he'll have to work for it. And maybe in the process, we can win another cup or two. :-)

[05-FEB-2020] #OviWatch - The Great 8 is #8 and Climbing

Last night, Ovi put away his third hat trick - THIRD! in the last seven games! Add to that a pair of two-goal games, and we have a total of 14 goals in seven games, and Ovi is now sitting pretty with 40 goals on the season.


That puts his total at 698 goals. This means he needs fewer than 200 goals to catch Gretzky!

01 - Wayne Gretzky............894 G - 196
02 - Gordie Howe..............801 G - 103
03 - Jaromir Jagr.............766 G -  68
04 - Brett Hull...............741 G -  43
05 - Marcel Dionne............731 G -  33
06 - Phil Esposito............717 G -  19
--------------------------------------------Possible---
07 - Mike Gartner.............708 G -  10
--------------------------------------------Probable---
08 - Alex Ovechkin............698 G 

With his 40th goal of the season, Ovi now has eleven 40-goal seasons in his career. Next up, if he can do that another time? He'll tie Gretzky for the most 40-goal seasons in a career. Twice? He'll be undisputed #1 in his own right.

Ovi has played in 53 of the Caps' 54 games, due to a one-game suspension for skipping the All-Star game, probably a wise move on his part. Let's do some math.

40 / 53 = 0.754 * 81 = 61.132 for Ovi's current pace.

82 - 53 = 29 games remaining in the season

61 - 40 = 19 goals needed to hit 61

19 / 29 = 0.655 goals per game for the rest of the year

698 / 1137 = 0.614 career

If - and this is a HUGE if - Ovi can hit the back of the net 19 more times, that will put him with 717 goals, and tied with Phil Esposito, something that at the beginning of the season, I put down as vastly unlikely! 

If - and this is a HUGE if - Ovi can keep scoring at a pace only slightly hotter than his career average for the rest of the season, he will end the year with 61 goals, beating his second-best season of 56 goals, which he got in 2008-09. That's eleven years ago!

An even bigger if, and likely not going to happen, unless Ovi is seriously on a tear beyond any tear he has ever been on in the history of his Ovi-ness... 26 goals in 29 games? That's what he needs for 66 goals, and to best his 2007-08 season, where he got 65. That's CRAZY! I am in no way, shape, or form thinking it's even remotely possible, but... Ovi. 

66 - 40 =  26 goals needed to hit 66

26 / 29 =  0.897 goals per game for the rest of the year... not bloody likely!

[17-JAN-2020] #OviWatch

01 - Wayne Gretzky............894 G - 205
02 - Gordie Howe..............801 G - 112
03 - Jaromir Jagr.............766 G -  77
04 - Brett Hull...............741 G -  52
05 - Marcel Dionne............731 G -  42
06 - Phil Esposito............717 G -  28
--------------------------------------------Possible---
07 - Mike Gartner.............708 G -  19
--------------------------------------------Probable---
08 - Mark Messier.............694 G -   5
09 - Steve Yzerman............692 G -   3
10 - Mario Lemieux............690 G -   1
11 - Alex Ovechkin............689 G

One more goal, and Our Hero ties Mario Lemieux. I stand by what I said at the beginning of the season; by the end of the season, Ovi will have surpassed Mark Messier, and maybe Mike Gartner. Phil Esposito is still within the realm of possibility.  At .646 goals per game over an 82 game season, Ovi is on pace for 52-53 goals. He's got 31 in 48 games, so he'll have to work at it if he wants to catch Espo... but I have learned not to bet against the Great Eight, like... ever.