From that post:
The record all time for career goals belongs to Wayne Douglas Gretzky, a name almost every hockey fan knows. Gretzky scored 894 goals in his career, which lasted 1961 games. Yes, Gretzky did his scoring when high-scoring games were much more frequent than they are today; his single-season record is a mind-boggling 92 goals in an 80 game season (1981-82). That's disgusting, and by today's standards... Ovechkin's beast season was in 2007-08, when he scored 65 goals, a feat that was considered fairly outrageous at the time.
Ovechkin's contract with the Washington Capitals will end in the 2020-21 season, five [now three] years from now. He will be 35 years old. I expect Ovi will continue to play for a few years after that; if he plays until he is 38, as Gretzky did, that will be the 2023-24 season. 8 years to make up 411 goals.
In 2015-16, Ovi scored 50 goals.
In 2016-17, he had an off year and scored only 33. That broke what I had written... but...
In 2017-18, Ovi scored 49 goals.
His total as of today stands at 607 goals in 1,003 games played.
If Ovi plays 1,961 games, he has 958 games to play in his career left.
That's 11.68 seasons.
Ovi is currently 32 years old. That would put him at 43 years old, and...
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
----------
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30 (partial season)
...would match the game total for Gretzky, who retired at age 38. That's a lot of games for a guy who plays like Alex Ovechkin! That disgusting 1981-82 season when Gretzky scored 92 goals is one difference-maker; the others are the 71-goal 1982-83 season and the 87-goal 1983-84 season. And the 73-goal 1983-84 season... ugh. Otherwise... let's line them up...
Gretzky.....Goals..........Ovi.........Goals
1978-79.....43.............2005-06.....52
1979-80.....51.............2006-07.....46
1980-81.....55.............2007-08.....65
1981-82.....92.............2008-09.....56
1982-83.....71.............2009-10.....50
1983-84.....87.............2010-11.....32
1984-85.....73.............2011-12.....38
1985-86.....52.............2012-13.....32*
1986-87.....62.............2013-14.....51
1987-88.....40.............2014-15.....53
1988-89.....54.............2015-16.....50
1989-90.....40.............2016-17.....33
1990-91.....41.............2017-18.....49
1991-92.....31 --------------
1992-93.....16 607
1993-94.....38
1994-95.....11
1995-96.....23 *Lockout-shortened season
1996-97.....25
1997-98.....23
1998-99......9
--------------
894
Now let's take a look at where Ovi stands right now.
01 - Wayne Gretzky - 894 G in 1487 GP +287
02 - Gordie Howe - 801 G in 1767 GP +194
03 - Jaromir Jagr - 765 G in 1714 GP +158
04 - Brett Hull - 741 G in 1269 GP +134
05 - Marcel Dionne - 731 G in 1348 GP +124
06 - Phil Esposito - 717 G in 1282 GP +110
07 - Mike Gartner - 708 G in 1432 GP +101
08 - Mark Messier - 694 G in 1756 GP + 87
09 - Steve Yzerman - 692 G in 1514 GP + 85
10 - Mario Lemieux - 690 G in 915 GP + 83
11 - Teemu Selanne - 684 G in 1451 GP + 77
12 - Luc Robataille - 668 G in 1431 GP + 61
13 - Brendan Shanahan - 656 G in 1524 GP + 49
14 - Dave Andreychuk - 640 G in 1639 GP + 33
15 - Joe Sakic - 625 G in 1378 GP + 18
16 - Jarome Iginla - 625 G in 1554 GP + 18
17 - Bobby Hull - 610 G in 1063 GP + 3
18 - Dino Ciccarelli - 608 G in 1232 GP + 1
20 - Alex Ovechkin - 607 G in 1003 GP
2018-19 - project 40 goals (647) takes Ovi to 14th
2019-20 - 35 goals (682) to 12th
2020-21 - 30 goals (712) to 7th
----------
2021-22 - 25 goals (737) to 5th
2022-23 - 20 goals (757) to 4th
2023-24 - 15 goals (772) to 3rd
2024-25 - 15 goals (787) still 3rd
2025-26 - 10 goals (797) still 3rd
2026-27 - 10 goals (807) 2nd ...
2027-28 - 5 goals (812) 2nd ...
2028-29 - 5 goals (817) 2nd ...
2029-30 (partial season) 3 goals (820) 2nd ...
OK, so maybe it's not realistic anymore... but let's do some tweaking. Ovi just had a nearly 50-goal season...
2018-19 - 45 goals (652) takes Ovi to 14th
2019-20 - 40 goals (692) to 12th
2020-21 - 35 goals (727) to 6th (tied)
2021-22 - 30 goals (757) to 3rd
2022-23 - 25 goals (782) still 3rd
2023-24 - 20 goals (802) still 3rd
2024-25 - 19 goals (821) 2nd
2025-26 - 18 goals (839) 2nd
2026-27 - 17 goals (856) 2nd
2027-28 - 16 goals (872) 2nd
2028-29 - 15 goals (887) 2nd
2029-30 - 14 goals (901) 1st by 4 goals...
IT STILL COULD HAPPEN. I never, ever, EVER bet against Alexander the Gr8!
Is it realistic? Maybe, maybe not... first off, the odds of Ovi playing another 10+ seasons the way he plays aren't fantastic. They aren't impossible. Gordie Howe holds the record for number of games played, with 1767. Jagr has played 1733. Chris Chelios 1651. You have to go all the way down to 22nd place before you find Gretzky, with his 1487 games. Ovi is sitting at 317th league-wide for games played. Do I see him playing a Gordie Howe number of games? No.
Do I want to be watching Ovi play in 2029-30? HELL YES!
