Thursday, September 6, 2018

[6-SEP-2018] What a Postseason!

What a year! What a postseason! The Caps are about to be, for the first time in franchise history, defending Stanley Cup Champions! Our Hero, Alex Ovechkin, scored 49 goals last season, and went on to score 15 in the postseason. 


That puts Ovi in 19th place all time for regular season goals scored, and with 61 total postseason goals, in 65th place all time for postseason goals. Both records are owned (naturally) by Wayne Gretzky (894 regular season and 122 postseason, respectively).

With 102 game-winning goals, career, Ovi is fittingly starting the season in 8th place. Alexander the Gr8 can certainly rise in all of these categories. Let's look at regular season goals first. Here's where we stand:

01 - Wayne Gretzky    - 894 G in 1487 GP +287
02 - Gordie Howe      - 801 G in 1767 GP +194
03 - Jaromir Jagr     - 765 G in 1714 GP +158
04 - Brett Hull       - 741 G in 1269 GP +134
05 - Marcel Dionne    - 731 G in 1348 GP +124
06 - Phil Esposito    - 717 G in 1282 GP +110
07 - Mike Gartner     - 708 G in 1432 GP +101
08 - Mark Messier     - 694 G in 1756 GP + 87
09 - Steve Yzerman    - 692 G in 1514 GP + 85
10 - Mario Lemieux    - 690 G in  915 GP + 83
11 - Teemu Selanne    - 684 G in 1451 GP + 77
12 - Luc Robataille   - 667 G in 1431 GP + 61 not bloody likely!
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13 - Brendan Shanahan - 656 G in 1431 GP + 49 outside chance
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14 - Dave Andreychuk  - 640 G in 1639 GP + 33 probable
15 - Joe Sakic        - 625 G in 1378 GP + 18
16 - Jarome Iginla    - 625 G in 1554 GP + 18
17 - Bobby Hull       - 610 G in 1063 GP +  3
18 - Dino Ciccarelli  - 608 G in 1232 GP +  1
19 - Alex Ovechkin    - 607 G in 1003 GP 

At the end of last season, I predicted Ovi would surpass Dave Andreychuk for sure this season, and might surpass Brendan Shanahan. I stand by that prediction. It'll be some time next year before he surpasses Luc Robataille, unless goalies start ducking when he's unleashing his wrister! 

Next up, game winning goals:

01 - Wayne Gretzky    - 135 GWG in 1733 GP  7.78% +33
02 - Gordie Howe      - 121 GWG in 1767 GP  6.84% +19
03 - Phil Esposito    - 118 GWG in 1282 GP  9.20% +16 not likely!
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04 - Brett Hull       - 110 GWG in 1269 GP  8.67% + 8 possible
05 - Teemu Selanne    - 110 GWG in 1451 GP  7.58% + 8
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06 - Brendan Shanahan - 109 GWG in 1524 GP  7.15% + 7 probable
07 - Patrick Marleau  - 103 GWG in 1575 GP  6.53% + 1
08 - Alex Ovechkin    - 102 GWG in 1003 GP 10.17%

Holy crap. Ovi scores the game winner in over 10% of his games played?! OK. Assuming he plays all 82 games, we can expect +8 GWGs based on his prior percentage.  I believe at the end of the season, Ovi will either be tied with Brett Hull and Teemu Selanne, or on his way up the chart towards Phil Esposito. We shall see!

I am not even looking at postseason goals yet. I'm hoping for BACK-TO-BACK! as Our Other Hero, T.J. Oshie, put it, but as a Caps fan, I'm nervous. Really nervous.

Let's look at power play goals. Here, Gretzky drops down to 17th. Guess he didn't get out there all that much, because Ovi is up in 10th!

01 - Dave Andreychuk  - 274 PPG in 1639 GP 16.72% +45
02 - Brett Hull       - 265 PPG in 1269 GP 20.88% +36
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03 - Teemu Selanne    - 255 PPG in 1451 GP 17.57% +26 possible
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04 - Luc Robataille   - 247 PPG in 1431 GP 17.26% +18 probable
05 - Phil Esposito    - 246 PPG in 1282 GP 19.19% +17
06 - Brendan Shanahan - 237 PPG in 1524 GP 15.56% + 8
07 - Mario Lemieux    - 236 PPG in  915 GP 25.79% + 7
08 - Marcel Dionne    - 234 PPG in 1348 GP 17.36% + 5
09 - Dino Ciccarelli  - 232 PPG in 1232 GP 18.83% + 3
10 - Alex Ovechkin    - 229 PPG in 1003 GP 22.80%

Ovi's PPG % by games played is 22.8%, which is surpassed only by Mario Lemieux. So, 22% of 82 games is... roughly 27 PPG. Jesus, Ovi! If Our Hero scores at his regular rate this season, that will catapult him to third place all time. Given that Ovi just became a daddy for the first time, and his son Sergei will be showing him all kinds of "firsts" this year? I don't doubt his ability to get there!

I am basing this all, 100%, on my opinion. I said at the beginning of last season that Ovi had a shot at catching Gretzky. Thanks to his poor showing two years ago, that's now more of an outside chance than anything, but I'm still holding out hope that a miracle will occur and he'll pull it off. In my last post, I showed how he could do it, by playing the same number of games Gretzky played in. 

I'd say, let's look at overtime goals, but... I don't think anyone's catching Ovi this year. He's got 22, and holds #1 all by himself, three ahead of Jagr... the next-closest active player has 15.
 

Hat-tricks in two games
To start the season last year
This year, let's see three!
#OviHaiku




 

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