Tuesday, November 24, 2015
[24-Nov-2015] Third time was indeed the charm...
May Ovi's march into the record books be long and glorious!
[24-Nov-2015] On Goaltending Records and the Holtbeast
Ever since the first time I watched Braden Holtby play a hockey game for the Hershey Bears, I knew he would be the Capitals' next franchise goaltender, and said so. I liked the kid's style. That was back when we had Michal Neuvirth and Semyon Varlamov on the team, too. But I didn't believe in either of them like I believed in the Holtbeast.
I fully believe that by the time Holtby hangs up his skates (hopefully having played his entire career with the Capitals, a good many years from now!) he will hold the majority of the franchise's goaltending records. Most of those records are currently held by retired franchise goaltender Olaf Kolzig, whom I was privileged to watch in one of his last seasons as a Cap.
Here's the list. I'm leaving out the loss records; we don't want any of those!
Holtby's current save percentage (SV%) as of today is .921
Holtby's current goals against average (GAA) as of today is 2.39
Most Games Played in a Season: 73 - Kolzig (1999-00) and Holtby (2014-15)
Most consecutive starts in a season: 23 - Holtby (2014-15)
Most games played in a career: 711 - Kolzig (1992-93 to 2007-08) - Holtby is at 194 to date
Most wins in a season: 41 - Kolzig (1999-00) and Holtby (2014-15)
Most wins in a career: 301- Kolzig (1992-93 to 2007-08) - Holtby is at 113 to date
Most shutouts in a season: 9 - Jim Carey (1995-96) and Holtby (2014-15)
Most shutouts in a career: 35 - Kolzig (1992-93 to 2007-08) - Holtby is at 21 to date
Highest save % in a season, minimum 20 games: .922 - Holtby (2014-15)
Highest save % in a career, minimum 82 games: .906 - Kolzig (1992-93 to 2007-08)
Lowest goals against average in a season, minimum 20 games: 2.13 - Carey (1994-95)
Lowest goals against average in a career, minimum 82 games: 2.37 - Carey (1994-95 to 1996-97)
Most saves in a season: 1,830 - Holtby (2014-15)
Most saves in a career: 18,013 - Kolzig (1992-93 to 2007-08)
Most shots against in a season: 2,011 - Holtby (2014-15)
Most shots against in a career: 19,873 - Kolzig (1992-93 to 2007-08)
Most minutes played in a season: 4,370:50 - Kolzig (1999-2000) - Holtby played 4,247:29 in (2014-15)
Most minutes played in a career: 41,259:36 - Kolzig (1992-93 to 2007-08) - Holtby has played 11,045:51 to date
I fully believe that by the time Holtby hangs up his skates (hopefully having played his entire career with the Capitals, a good many years from now!) he will hold the majority of the franchise's goaltending records. Most of those records are currently held by retired franchise goaltender Olaf Kolzig, whom I was privileged to watch in one of his last seasons as a Cap.
Here's the list. I'm leaving out the loss records; we don't want any of those!
Holtby's current save percentage (SV%) as of today is .921
Holtby's current goals against average (GAA) as of today is 2.39
Most Games Played in a Season: 73 - Kolzig (1999-00) and Holtby (2014-15)
Most consecutive starts in a season: 23 - Holtby (2014-15)
Most games played in a career: 711 - Kolzig (1992-93 to 2007-08) - Holtby is at 194 to date
Most wins in a season: 41 - Kolzig (1999-00) and Holtby (2014-15)
Most wins in a career: 301- Kolzig (1992-93 to 2007-08) - Holtby is at 113 to date
Most shutouts in a season: 9 - Jim Carey (1995-96) and Holtby (2014-15)
Most shutouts in a career: 35 - Kolzig (1992-93 to 2007-08) - Holtby is at 21 to date
Highest save % in a season, minimum 20 games: .922 - Holtby (2014-15)
Highest save % in a career, minimum 82 games: .906 - Kolzig (1992-93 to 2007-08)
Lowest goals against average in a season, minimum 20 games: 2.13 - Carey (1994-95)
Lowest goals against average in a career, minimum 82 games: 2.37 - Carey (1994-95 to 1996-97)
Most saves in a season: 1,830 - Holtby (2014-15)
Most saves in a career: 18,013 - Kolzig (1992-93 to 2007-08)
Most shots against in a season: 2,011 - Holtby (2014-15)
Most shots against in a career: 19,873 - Kolzig (1992-93 to 2007-08)
Most minutes played in a season: 4,370:50 - Kolzig (1999-2000) - Holtby played 4,247:29 in (2014-15)
Most minutes played in a career: 41,259:36 - Kolzig (1992-93 to 2007-08) - Holtby has played 11,045:51 to date
Friday, November 13, 2015
[13-Nov-2015] Third time's the charm?
If I had a nickel for every time Ovi had a goal called back in his career, well... I'd probably be able to afford to go to Starbucks this morning for a small mocha cappuccino. :-p
On the other hand, NHL Numbers is putting Ovechkin and Gretzky in the same sentence, too... Seems like that Russian kid's finally got people's attention or something.
Tonight, Ovi will have his third opportunity to pass Fedorov... maybe this time, the goal will count!
Someone keep Justin Williams off the ice when Ovechkin's on it??? Please???
RMNB on the First Record-Breaking Goal
RMNB on the Second Record-Breaking Goal
Can we actually see an Ovi goal that counts tonight, please???
On the other hand, NHL Numbers is putting Ovechkin and Gretzky in the same sentence, too... Seems like that Russian kid's finally got people's attention or something.
Tonight, Ovi will have his third opportunity to pass Fedorov... maybe this time, the goal will count!
Someone keep Justin Williams off the ice when Ovechkin's on it??? Please???
RMNB on the First Record-Breaking Goal
RMNB on the Second Record-Breaking Goal
Can we actually see an Ovi goal that counts tonight, please???
Thursday, November 12, 2015
[12-Nov-2015] I'm Not Crazy II
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/2015/11/11/alex-ovechkin-greatness-washington-capitals/75574876/
"But here’s what should be remembered about Ovechkin: He just turned 30 years old in September, and he could pass Lemieux to be among the top 10 scorers all-time by 34. Based on his scoring rate, Ovechkin has an outside shot of chasing down Gretzky’s record of 894. Unlikely, but not impossible."
-Kevin Allen (USA Today Sports)
"But here’s what should be remembered about Ovechkin: He just turned 30 years old in September, and he could pass Lemieux to be among the top 10 scorers all-time by 34. Based on his scoring rate, Ovechkin has an outside shot of chasing down Gretzky’s record of 894. Unlikely, but not impossible."
-Kevin Allen (USA Today Sports)
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
[10-Nov-2015] Let's talk about some more records...
Most overtime goals currently belongs to Jaromir Jagr, with 19, scored in 1562 games.
Ovechkin has 15 in his 772 games, good for third all time, and tied with Mats Sundin (15 in 1346) and our old friend Sergei Fedorov (15 in 1248). I see Ovi easily eclipsing this mark in his career, especially now that overtime is 3-on-3 instead of 4-on-4...
Most game winning goals also belongs to Jagr, with 129 in 1562 games played.
Ovechkin has 81 in his 772 games, good for 24th place. I also see Ovi eclipsing this mark. He needs only 48 game winning goals to get there.
Most power play goals belongs to Joe Sakic, with 631 in 1378 games played.
Ovechkin is in 48th place, with 357 in his 772 games. He needs 274 more to catch Sakic, and I think he will do that as well...
Shorthanded goals? Not a snowball's chance in a blast furnace will we ever see a name on the top of that list that isn't a centerman. Wayne Gretzky (natch) owns the record, at 73 in 1487 games.
Let's look at that number again. 73. Short-handed goals. Jesus Hockey-loving Christ, that's a shit-ton of epic proportions! Mark Messier is closest, with 63. Among active players, Marian Hossa, with his 30 in 1184 games, is closest... and he's 20th on the list.
Has Ovi EVER scored a short-handed goal? Why yes, yes he has. A whopping four times.
Brooks Laich holds the Capitals' record for short-handed goals, with 10 (among active players). Peter Bondra had 32 in his career, followed by Bengt-Ake Gustafsson, with 17. I'm fairly sure it's safe to say that there is no way in hell that Ovi will score 69 short-handed goals in the rest of his career, not as infrequently as he's out there on the penalty kill.
The rest, though? Stack 'em up, and like Russian-dressing-filled babushka dolls, Ovi will knock 'em down! I feel it in my bones. :-)
Ovechkin has 15 in his 772 games, good for third all time, and tied with Mats Sundin (15 in 1346) and our old friend Sergei Fedorov (15 in 1248). I see Ovi easily eclipsing this mark in his career, especially now that overtime is 3-on-3 instead of 4-on-4...
Most game winning goals also belongs to Jagr, with 129 in 1562 games played.
Ovechkin has 81 in his 772 games, good for 24th place. I also see Ovi eclipsing this mark. He needs only 48 game winning goals to get there.
Most power play goals belongs to Joe Sakic, with 631 in 1378 games played.
Ovechkin is in 48th place, with 357 in his 772 games. He needs 274 more to catch Sakic, and I think he will do that as well...
Shorthanded goals? Not a snowball's chance in a blast furnace will we ever see a name on the top of that list that isn't a centerman. Wayne Gretzky (natch) owns the record, at 73 in 1487 games.
Let's look at that number again. 73. Short-handed goals. Jesus Hockey-loving Christ, that's a shit-ton of epic proportions! Mark Messier is closest, with 63. Among active players, Marian Hossa, with his 30 in 1184 games, is closest... and he's 20th on the list.
Has Ovi EVER scored a short-handed goal? Why yes, yes he has. A whopping four times.
Brooks Laich holds the Capitals' record for short-handed goals, with 10 (among active players). Peter Bondra had 32 in his career, followed by Bengt-Ake Gustafsson, with 17. I'm fairly sure it's safe to say that there is no way in hell that Ovi will score 69 short-handed goals in the rest of his career, not as infrequently as he's out there on the penalty kill.
The rest, though? Stack 'em up, and like Russian-dressing-filled babushka dolls, Ovi will knock 'em down! I feel it in my bones. :-)
[10-Nov-2015] On Mike Green, Detroit, and Loyalty
The first Caps sweater I ever bought was a #52 Mike Green sweater. I remember buying it largely because I wasn't going to follow the crowd and get a #8 Alex Ovechkin sweater, but that Mike Green guy was pretty good. I was new to hockey at the time, so the special that Mike Green brought to the Caps was not as astonishing as it might have been otherwise.
Ray Bourque (Chris Bourque's daddy) with his 410 goals in 1612 games as a defenseman is arguably the best offensive defenseman there ever was, or ever will be. Not unlike the argument about Gretzky being the greatest goal scorer ever born - a point that only time will tell if it's true or not.
With 113 goals to his name, Mike Green sits at 71st among all defensemen in terms of goals. Among active players, he is 8th, with only names like Zdeno Chara (#1 with 170 in 1207 games played), Chris Pronger, Dan Boyle, etc. - with fewer games at 583 under his belt than any man ahead of him as of this time.
Do I believe Green can catch Bourque?
Maybe?
113/583 = .194
410/1612 = .254
Not bloody likely, though...
OK, it'd take a bloody miracle.
Let's play some "What If" games, for fun on a rainy morning, to pass the time before tonight's Caps-Red Wings game, the first time Green faces Ovechkin on the other side of the dot. Ovi's said, tongue in cheek, that he'll slash Greenie's favorite sticks, but I'd think less of him as a hockey player and a person if he really meant it...
Green's best season was 2008-09, during which he scored 31 goals. He hasn't come close since, and only three times since that year has he hit double digits in goals. This year, so far, in 8 games played, he has 0 goals, 3 assists, and a -3 rating.
Injuries have plagued Green throughout his career; the last time he played a full 82 game schedule was in 2007-08, when he scored 18 goals.
Let's start at 15 goals for Green.
2015-16 - 15 goals would take him to 128 goals. That ties him with Glen Wesley, who scored 128 goals in 1457 games, and with Lubomir Visnovsky, who scored his 128 goals in 883 games. It puts him at 55th, right behind Bill Gadsby, at 130 goals in 1248 games.
2016-17 - 12 goals would take him to 140, enough to break into the top 50 defensemen, all time, in terms of goal scoring, placing him at 44th, ahead of Rob Ramage (139 in 1044), and behind David Babych (142 in 1195).
2017-18 - 9 goals would take him to 149, 38th place, tying him with Shea Weber (149 in 698) and James Patrick (149 in 1280).
2018-19 - 6 goals would take him to 155, tying him at 31st with Roman Hamrlik (155 in 1395), just behind Chris Pronger (157 in 1167).
2019-20 - 3 goals would take him to 158, which would put him above Pronger at 30th, and just below Sandis Ozolinsh (167 in 875).
Somehow... much as I love Mike Green... and I do still love Mike Green... I can't see this working out.
Even if Greenie managed 20 goals this year - it's still not likely...
2015-16 - 20 goals = 133 (50th with Richard Redmond, 133 in 711)
2016-17 - 17 goals = 150 (37th with Borje Salming, 150 in 1148)
2017-18 - 14 goals = 164 (30th, above Chris Pronger, 157 in 1167)
2018-19 - 11 goals = 175 (25th, above Scott Niedermayer, 172 in 1263)
2019-20 - 8 goals = 183 (24th, above Ron Greschner, 179 in 431)
2020-21 - 5 goals = 188 (23rd, above Chris Chelios, 185 in 763)
2021-22 - 2 goals = 190 (same place)
So yeah... I don't think it's possible for Mike Green to ever catch Ray Bourque. I'm not sure it's possible for any active player to catch Bourque. Zdeno Chara, who is approaching the end of his career at 1207 games, has 170 goals, and he is closest among active players. Even if Chara plays another 400 games, he would have to score 240 goals in that time, and he hasn't scored that in his first 1207 games... I'm pretty sure it's safe to call Bourque's record unbeatable.
But that doesn't mean I don't adore Mike Green as an awesome human being and an incredibly good hockey player! :<3
Ray Bourque (Chris Bourque's daddy) with his 410 goals in 1612 games as a defenseman is arguably the best offensive defenseman there ever was, or ever will be. Not unlike the argument about Gretzky being the greatest goal scorer ever born - a point that only time will tell if it's true or not.
With 113 goals to his name, Mike Green sits at 71st among all defensemen in terms of goals. Among active players, he is 8th, with only names like Zdeno Chara (#1 with 170 in 1207 games played), Chris Pronger, Dan Boyle, etc. - with fewer games at 583 under his belt than any man ahead of him as of this time.
Do I believe Green can catch Bourque?
Maybe?
113/583 = .194
410/1612 = .254
Not bloody likely, though...
OK, it'd take a bloody miracle.
Let's play some "What If" games, for fun on a rainy morning, to pass the time before tonight's Caps-Red Wings game, the first time Green faces Ovechkin on the other side of the dot. Ovi's said, tongue in cheek, that he'll slash Greenie's favorite sticks, but I'd think less of him as a hockey player and a person if he really meant it...
Green's best season was 2008-09, during which he scored 31 goals. He hasn't come close since, and only three times since that year has he hit double digits in goals. This year, so far, in 8 games played, he has 0 goals, 3 assists, and a -3 rating.
Injuries have plagued Green throughout his career; the last time he played a full 82 game schedule was in 2007-08, when he scored 18 goals.
Let's start at 15 goals for Green.
2015-16 - 15 goals would take him to 128 goals. That ties him with Glen Wesley, who scored 128 goals in 1457 games, and with Lubomir Visnovsky, who scored his 128 goals in 883 games. It puts him at 55th, right behind Bill Gadsby, at 130 goals in 1248 games.
2016-17 - 12 goals would take him to 140, enough to break into the top 50 defensemen, all time, in terms of goal scoring, placing him at 44th, ahead of Rob Ramage (139 in 1044), and behind David Babych (142 in 1195).
2017-18 - 9 goals would take him to 149, 38th place, tying him with Shea Weber (149 in 698) and James Patrick (149 in 1280).
2018-19 - 6 goals would take him to 155, tying him at 31st with Roman Hamrlik (155 in 1395), just behind Chris Pronger (157 in 1167).
2019-20 - 3 goals would take him to 158, which would put him above Pronger at 30th, and just below Sandis Ozolinsh (167 in 875).
Somehow... much as I love Mike Green... and I do still love Mike Green... I can't see this working out.
Even if Greenie managed 20 goals this year - it's still not likely...
2015-16 - 20 goals = 133 (50th with Richard Redmond, 133 in 711)
2016-17 - 17 goals = 150 (37th with Borje Salming, 150 in 1148)
2017-18 - 14 goals = 164 (30th, above Chris Pronger, 157 in 1167)
2018-19 - 11 goals = 175 (25th, above Scott Niedermayer, 172 in 1263)
2019-20 - 8 goals = 183 (24th, above Ron Greschner, 179 in 431)
2020-21 - 5 goals = 188 (23rd, above Chris Chelios, 185 in 763)
2021-22 - 2 goals = 190 (same place)
So yeah... I don't think it's possible for Mike Green to ever catch Ray Bourque. I'm not sure it's possible for any active player to catch Bourque. Zdeno Chara, who is approaching the end of his career at 1207 games, has 170 goals, and he is closest among active players. Even if Chara plays another 400 games, he would have to score 240 goals in that time, and he hasn't scored that in his first 1207 games... I'm pretty sure it's safe to call Bourque's record unbeatable.
But that doesn't mean I don't adore Mike Green as an awesome human being and an incredibly good hockey player! :<3
[10-Nov-2015] Wow! I'm not the only one?!
"It's the timeframe that he's doing it in," Capitals coach Barry Trotz said. "He's approaching levels of goal scoring that you talk about with the great goal scorers. Probably it was Bobby Hull and the next generation was talking about Brett Hull,
but this generation now is going to be talking about Ovechkin. There's
no question he'll be in the Hall of Fame and there's no question he's
one of the few guys that has a chance to break The Great One's record."
Coach believes it?! I'm not insane! Huzzah!
"I think he might be the best goal scorer since Gretzky," Brett Hull said, "unless he passes Gretzky."
Brett HULL believes it's possible?! Whoa.
I'M NOT CRAZY!
Coach believes it?! I'm not insane! Huzzah!
"I think he might be the best goal scorer since Gretzky," Brett Hull said, "unless he passes Gretzky."
Brett HULL believes it's possible?! Whoa.
I'M NOT CRAZY!
Monday, November 9, 2015
[09-Nov-2015] OK, I'mma go out on a limb here.....
On Saturday night, Alexander Mikhailovich Ovechkin made goal scoring history with his 483rd career goal in 772 games played, tying the record set by Sergei Viktorovich Fyodorov, who scored 483 goals in 1248 games.
Fyodorov (Fedorov, for the Americans) would like to see Ovechkin break his record tomorrow night in Detroit, where Fyodorov is being honored as a proud 2015 inductee to the NHL Hall of Fame. I'm looking forward to it, and to a whole lot more goals after that!
I'm going out on a limb...
The record all time for career goals by a left wing belongs to Luc Jean-Marie Robitaill at 668. Ovechkin, with his current 483 goals, has 185 goals to go to break that record. I say it's not only possible, but that before the end of his career, we will see Ovi own that record outright. He is currently ranked 9th out of all left wings in goals scored, according to NHL.com.
The record all time for career power play goals belongs to David John Andreychuk at 275. Ovechkin currently has 197 power play goals, and needs only 97 to break that record. I say Ovechkin will own that record before the end of his career, as well. Ovi is currently ranked 28th all time at power play goals, according to NHL.com.
Neither of those predictions really has me all that far out on a limb... but this one sure will!
The record all time for career goals belongs to Wayne Douglas Gretzky, a name almost every hockey fan knows. Gretzky scored 894 goals in his career, which lasted 1961 games. Yes, Gretzky did his scoring when high-scoring games were much more frequent than they are today; his single-season record is a mind-boggling 92 goals in an 80 game season (1981-82). That's disgusting, and by today's standards... Ovechkin's beast season was in 2007-08, when he scored 65 goals, a feat that was considered fairly outrageous at the time.
Ovechkin's contract with the Washington Capitals will end in the 2020-21 season, five years from now. He will be 35 years old. I expect Ovi will continue to play for a few years after that; if he plays until he is 38, as Gretzky did, that will be the 2023-24 season. 8 years to make up 411 goals.
51.375 goals per season.
Nobody, but nobody thinks Ovi can pull that off, and to be realistic, a 50 goal scorer over the age of 30? Johnny Bucyk is the oldest to pull it off, at age 35, followed by Jaromir Jagr at age 34. There aren't many, but Ovi is one of a kind... by far the greatest goal scorer of his generation.
http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/records/nhl-players-all-time-goals-leaders.html shows Ovechkin is now ranked 50th in goals scored in the NHL, career. That puts him on the same page as Gretzky.
Now, let's see how high he can climb...
This season, so far, Ovi has 8 goals in 12 games played. That puts him on pace for 54.66 games on the season, assuming he keeps up his current scoring rate. We'll round that up to 55.
55 goals will take Ovi to 530 goals career. That will jump him to 33rd on the list, ahead of Brian Trottier's 524, and behind Francis Mahovlich's 533.
Next season (2016-17), if Ovi scores 50, it will take him to 580 goals career. That will put him at 20th on the list, ahead of Mark Recchi (577) and behind Jarome Iginla (595).
If in 2017-18, Ovi scores 45, that will take him to 625 goals career. That will put him at 15th, tied with Joe Sakic (625) and just behind Dave Andreychuk (640).
Let's look to 2018-19 and give Ovi 40 goals, taking him to 665, enough for 13th, overtaking Brendan Shanahan (656) and just behind Luc Robataille (668).
If in 2019-20, Ovi scores 35 goals, that will put him at 700 goals career. That's good enough for 7th, jumping Mark Messier (694) and just behind Mike Gartner (708).
In 2020-21, Ovi's last season under contract (at the moment) for the Capitals, if he scores 30 goals, he will have 730 career. That's good enough for 5th, just ahead of Jaromir Jagr (728*) and just behind Marcel Dionne (731).
*Jagr is still active as well, and will probably play at least this season and next. He has 6 goals this season so far, in 12 games played.
In 2021-22, we'll give him 25 goals, taking him to 755 career. 3rd place, ahead of Brett Hull (741) and behind Gordie Howe (801).
In 2022-23, we'll give him 20 goals. He'll fall short of Gordie Howe (801), with 775 goals career, let alone Gretzky's ridiculous 894! So how, Sal, do you think he could even remotely have a chance to beat The Great One's record? Is it even possible?!
In 2023-24, we'll give Ovi 15 goals. That puts him at 790, still short of Howe. 2024-25, 10 goals puts him at 800, STILL short of Howe. 2025-26? He'll be 40 years old. 5 goals puts him at 805, and finally he's ahead of Gordie Howe... and still 89 behind Gretzky. Whoa.
I don't know. Ovi would have to do the virtually impossible to break Gretzky's record. And my numbers are just a non-stats-geek gal dropping 5 off the total every year as Ovechkin gets older. My numbers have zero basis in reality; it's just me...
I think that if any player alive today is capable of eventually breaking Gretzky's goal scoring record, it's Alex Ovechkin. If Ovi, the greatest goal scorer of his generation, can't do it playing another 10 years in the NHL, it can't be done.
In real fantasy-land... like, what are you smoking and can I share fantasy-land...
2015-16 58 goals
2016-17 55 goals
2017-18 52 goals
2018-19 49 goals
2019-20 46 goals
2020-21 43 goals
2021-22 40 goals
2022-23 37 goals
2023-24 34 goals
2024-25 31 goals
2025-26 28 goals
--------------------
473 goals total ... that'd put him at 948 goals career.... madness? Can he do it?
Only time will tell...
I'd love to see it happen.
Fyodorov (Fedorov, for the Americans) would like to see Ovechkin break his record tomorrow night in Detroit, where Fyodorov is being honored as a proud 2015 inductee to the NHL Hall of Fame. I'm looking forward to it, and to a whole lot more goals after that!
I'm going out on a limb...
The record all time for career goals by a left wing belongs to Luc Jean-Marie Robitaill at 668. Ovechkin, with his current 483 goals, has 185 goals to go to break that record. I say it's not only possible, but that before the end of his career, we will see Ovi own that record outright. He is currently ranked 9th out of all left wings in goals scored, according to NHL.com.
The record all time for career power play goals belongs to David John Andreychuk at 275. Ovechkin currently has 197 power play goals, and needs only 97 to break that record. I say Ovechkin will own that record before the end of his career, as well. Ovi is currently ranked 28th all time at power play goals, according to NHL.com.
Neither of those predictions really has me all that far out on a limb... but this one sure will!
The record all time for career goals belongs to Wayne Douglas Gretzky, a name almost every hockey fan knows. Gretzky scored 894 goals in his career, which lasted 1961 games. Yes, Gretzky did his scoring when high-scoring games were much more frequent than they are today; his single-season record is a mind-boggling 92 goals in an 80 game season (1981-82). That's disgusting, and by today's standards... Ovechkin's beast season was in 2007-08, when he scored 65 goals, a feat that was considered fairly outrageous at the time.
Ovechkin's contract with the Washington Capitals will end in the 2020-21 season, five years from now. He will be 35 years old. I expect Ovi will continue to play for a few years after that; if he plays until he is 38, as Gretzky did, that will be the 2023-24 season. 8 years to make up 411 goals.
51.375 goals per season.
Nobody, but nobody thinks Ovi can pull that off, and to be realistic, a 50 goal scorer over the age of 30? Johnny Bucyk is the oldest to pull it off, at age 35, followed by Jaromir Jagr at age 34. There aren't many, but Ovi is one of a kind... by far the greatest goal scorer of his generation.
http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/records/nhl-players-all-time-goals-leaders.html shows Ovechkin is now ranked 50th in goals scored in the NHL, career. That puts him on the same page as Gretzky.
Now, let's see how high he can climb...
This season, so far, Ovi has 8 goals in 12 games played. That puts him on pace for 54.66 games on the season, assuming he keeps up his current scoring rate. We'll round that up to 55.
55 goals will take Ovi to 530 goals career. That will jump him to 33rd on the list, ahead of Brian Trottier's 524, and behind Francis Mahovlich's 533.
Next season (2016-17), if Ovi scores 50, it will take him to 580 goals career. That will put him at 20th on the list, ahead of Mark Recchi (577) and behind Jarome Iginla (595).
If in 2017-18, Ovi scores 45, that will take him to 625 goals career. That will put him at 15th, tied with Joe Sakic (625) and just behind Dave Andreychuk (640).
Let's look to 2018-19 and give Ovi 40 goals, taking him to 665, enough for 13th, overtaking Brendan Shanahan (656) and just behind Luc Robataille (668).
If in 2019-20, Ovi scores 35 goals, that will put him at 700 goals career. That's good enough for 7th, jumping Mark Messier (694) and just behind Mike Gartner (708).
In 2020-21, Ovi's last season under contract (at the moment) for the Capitals, if he scores 30 goals, he will have 730 career. That's good enough for 5th, just ahead of Jaromir Jagr (728*) and just behind Marcel Dionne (731).
*Jagr is still active as well, and will probably play at least this season and next. He has 6 goals this season so far, in 12 games played.
In 2021-22, we'll give him 25 goals, taking him to 755 career. 3rd place, ahead of Brett Hull (741) and behind Gordie Howe (801).
In 2022-23, we'll give him 20 goals. He'll fall short of Gordie Howe (801), with 775 goals career, let alone Gretzky's ridiculous 894! So how, Sal, do you think he could even remotely have a chance to beat The Great One's record? Is it even possible?!
In 2023-24, we'll give Ovi 15 goals. That puts him at 790, still short of Howe. 2024-25, 10 goals puts him at 800, STILL short of Howe. 2025-26? He'll be 40 years old. 5 goals puts him at 805, and finally he's ahead of Gordie Howe... and still 89 behind Gretzky. Whoa.
I don't know. Ovi would have to do the virtually impossible to break Gretzky's record. And my numbers are just a non-stats-geek gal dropping 5 off the total every year as Ovechkin gets older. My numbers have zero basis in reality; it's just me...
I think that if any player alive today is capable of eventually breaking Gretzky's goal scoring record, it's Alex Ovechkin. If Ovi, the greatest goal scorer of his generation, can't do it playing another 10 years in the NHL, it can't be done.
In real fantasy-land... like, what are you smoking and can I share fantasy-land...
2015-16 58 goals
2016-17 55 goals
2017-18 52 goals
2018-19 49 goals
2019-20 46 goals
2020-21 43 goals
2021-22 40 goals
2022-23 37 goals
2023-24 34 goals
2024-25 31 goals
2025-26 28 goals
--------------------
473 goals total ... that'd put him at 948 goals career.... madness? Can he do it?
Only time will tell...
I'd love to see it happen.
Thursday, November 5, 2015
[05-Nov-2015] So far, so... OK, I like what I'm seeing, but DAMN YOU, HENRIK LUNDQVIST!!!
That Henrik Lundqvist... not only is he one of the best goaltenders in the National Hockey League, not only does he seem to have the Caps' number... it's just not FAIR that he should have all that, and be drop-dead gorgeous too!
*cough*
OK, no. This is not a puck bunny site, and while Lundqvist is undeniably good-looking, that is definitely NOT the point of this blog post.
34 saves on 36 shots.
That backhand pass from Nate Schmidt to Alex Ovechkin for the Caps' first goal was just sick. Lundqvist was caught with his hand in the air facing the wrong direction to even have half a prayer of stopping Ovi's bullet of a shot.
Marcus Johansson from Karl Alzner... put Lundqvist on his arsenic and old lace.
But beyond that... the puck luck simply was not there. The Force was with Lundqvist, and not the Caps.
The play-by-play listed shots:
So I'm not going to complain that we weren't putting quality shots up on Lundqvist. I'll just say he's damned good at his job, and we'll solve him next time. We've done it before; we'll do it again. The only thing we need to do is not make mistakes that wind up in the back of the net.
The same goes tonight against the depleted Bruins team. Yes, they've lost Chris Kelly for the season, and that sucks for them. They are also without David Pastrnak and Dennis Seidenberg. But those missing players don't make David Krejci less dangerous, or Tuukka Rask a less stellar goaltender (assuming we get Rask tonight rather than Jonas Gustavvson...) Krejci, Brad Marchand, and Loui Ericsson are all still playing, and Krejci has more goals than Ovi right now...
I'm hoping that will change tonight.
*cough*
OK, no. This is not a puck bunny site, and while Lundqvist is undeniably good-looking, that is definitely NOT the point of this blog post.
34 saves on 36 shots.
That backhand pass from Nate Schmidt to Alex Ovechkin for the Caps' first goal was just sick. Lundqvist was caught with his hand in the air facing the wrong direction to even have half a prayer of stopping Ovi's bullet of a shot.
Marcus Johansson from Karl Alzner... put Lundqvist on his arsenic and old lace.
But beyond that... the puck luck simply was not there. The Force was with Lundqvist, and not the Caps.
The play-by-play listed shots:
- Alex Ovechkin, backhand, 7'
- Tom Wilson, snapshot, 12'
- Brooks Orpik, slapshot, 44'
- Nate Schmidt, wrist shot, 56'
- Andre Burakovsky, shapshot, 21'
- Marcus Johansson, wrist shot, 14'
- Alex Ovechkin, slapshot, 16'
- Matt Niskanen, snapshot, 62'
- Alex Ovechkin, snapshot, 24'
- TJ Oshie, tip-in, 10'
- Nate Schmidt, backhand, 10'
- Karl Alzner, wrist shot, 58'
- Nicklas Backstrom, tip-in, 10'
- John Carlson, snapshot, 48'
- Matt Niskanen, slapshot, 51'
- Brooks Orpik, backhand, 36'
- Justin Williams, wrist shot, 23'
- Alex Ovechkin, wrist shot, 15'
- Matt Niskanen, slapshot, 59'
- Justin Williams, wrist shot, 15'
- Alex Ovechkin, wrist shot, 17'
- Justin Williams, snapshot, 31'
- John Carlson, wrist shot, 45'
- Evgeny Kuznetsov, wrist shot, 12'
- Justin Williams, wrist shot, 17'
- TJ Oshie, tip-in, 9'
- Alex Ovechkin, wrist shot, 12'
- Andre Burakovsky, wrist shot, 13'
- Jason Chimera, wrist shot, 9'
- Nate Schmidt, backhand, 12'
- Matt Niskanen, slapshot, 47'
- Alex Ovechkin, slapshot, 99'
So I'm not going to complain that we weren't putting quality shots up on Lundqvist. I'll just say he's damned good at his job, and we'll solve him next time. We've done it before; we'll do it again. The only thing we need to do is not make mistakes that wind up in the back of the net.
The same goes tonight against the depleted Bruins team. Yes, they've lost Chris Kelly for the season, and that sucks for them. They are also without David Pastrnak and Dennis Seidenberg. But those missing players don't make David Krejci less dangerous, or Tuukka Rask a less stellar goaltender (assuming we get Rask tonight rather than Jonas Gustavvson...) Krejci, Brad Marchand, and Loui Ericsson are all still playing, and Krejci has more goals than Ovi right now...
I'm hoping that will change tonight.
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