Thursday, November 14, 2019

[14-NOV-2019] 20 Game Report Card

#OviWatch


At the start of the season, Ovi had 658 goals. Since that time, he has scored 13 goals, sitting tied for 3rd in the league behind David Pastrnak (BOS-16G) and Leon Draisaitl (EDM-15G).


13 goals in 20 games is a .65 goals-per-game pace. Multiply that by a full 82 game season, and Ovi is on pace for 53 goals... so Mike Gartner is still inside the pace, 20 games in.


Next up, with 684 goals, is Teemu Selänne. Selänne was born in 1970 in Helsinki, Finland (on my 5th birthday, coincidentally), and began his career playing for Helsingin Jokerit (the Helsinki Jesters) in the SM-liiga. Jokerit, incidentally, is now a part of the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL), and is the first team from the Nordic countries to play in that league. He made his NHL debut with the (then) Winnipeg Jets on October 6, 1992. His 76 goals in his first NHL season set the record for rookies; however, he never again matched that total, playing for Winnipeg until February 6, 1996, when he was traded to the Anaheim (then) Mighty Ducks. In 2000-01, he was traded to the San Jose Sharks, where he played until the end of the 2003-04 season; the 2004-05 season was eliminated due to the lockout, and in 2005-06, Selänne returned to Anaheim, where he finished out his career with 1,451 NHL games played, 684 goals scored, 773 assists, and 1457 points. His number, which coincidentally, is 8, was retired by the Ducks on January 11, 2015.


In the 2014 Sochi Olympics, Selänne was named MVP as selected by the media, and the Finnish team both eliminated Russia from the tournament, then defeated the United States in the bronze medal game. He and his wife, Sirpa, have four children: Eemil, Eetu, Leevi, and Veera. They reside in southern California. He collects cars, and has raced in the World Rally Championship twice. He is owner, with Kevin Pratt, of the Selanne Steak Tavern, which has a positively drool-worthy (but expensive) menu, and is located in Laguna Beach, California.


Here's Ovi where he stands right now. My 2019-20 Pre-flections remain as-stated before the season began.



01 - Wayne Gretzky............894 G - 223
02 - Gordie Howe..............801 G - 130
03 - Jaromir Jagr.............766 G -  95
04 - Brett Hull...............741 G -  70
05 - Marcel Dionne............731 G -  60
06 - Phil Esposito............717 G -  46
--------------------------------------------Possible---
07 - Mike Gartner.............708 G -  37
--------------------------------------------Probable---
08 - Mark Messier.............694 G -  23
09 - Steve Yzerman............692 G -  21
10 - Mario Lemieux............690 G -  19
11 - Teemu Selanne............684 G -  13
12 - Alex Ovechkin............671 G
11 - Luc Robataille...........668 G



#NickyWatch


Nicklas Bäckström has quietly moved up the points standings to 118th overall. He's off his usual pace, with 15 points in 20 games played (4G, 11A), though that should pick up as the season continues. His 15 points have been doubled up by John Carlson, who is sitting at 30 (8G, 22A) points in 20 games played right now, and is kicking everyone's ass in that regard, including Ovi's!


The top 5 for the Caps, points-wise, are rounded out with Evgeny Kuznetsov (18 points in 17 games played (8G, 10A)), Jakub Vrana (17 points in 20 games played (8G, 17A)), and Tom Wilson (16 points in 20 games played (8G, 16A)).

Bäckström is currently sitting in 6th place on the team - which isn't a bad place to be for a team that is in first place in the NHL standings.


#ZeroClub


Carl Hagelin, Travis Boyd, Nick Jensen, Richard Panik, and Tyler Lewington have yet to score one goal for the Caps this season. We'll see how that plays out.





Friday, August 30, 2019

[30-AUG-2019] Pre-flections on the upcoming season...

Last season, Ovi put up 51 goals in 81 games played, his one missed game, a one-game suspension for not playing in the All-Star game (Bo-GUS!) That brought our hero's total to 658 goals in 1,084 games played.

Ovi has been remarkably consistent in games played, playing no fewer than 67 games in each of his full seasons since 2005-06 (the lone exception was the 48-game lockout-shortened 2012-2013 season).  In that time, he also has 247 power play goals, 4 short-handed goals, and 107 game winning goals.

I will say right now, over a month before the season starts, I think this may be one more 50-goal season for Ovi. He'll have no fewer than 40, and may break 50. I believe, right now, that he will also take home the Rocket Richard trophy for a record-setting 9th time. 

01 - Wayne Gretzky............894 G - 236
02 - Gordie Howe..............801 G - 143
03 - Jaromir Jagr.............766 G - 108
04 - Brett Hull...............741 G -  83
05 - Marcel Dionne............731 G -  73
06 - Phil Esposito............717 G -  59
--------------------------------------------Possible---
07 - Mike Gartner.............708 G -  50
--------------------------------------------Probable---
08 - Mark Messier.............694 G -  36
09 - Steve Yzerman............692 G -  34
10 - Mario Lemieux............690 G -  32
11 - Teemu Selanne............684 G -  26
12 - Luc Robataille...........668 G -  10
13 - Alex Ovechkin............658 G

If Ovi scores 40 goals this season, it will put him at 698 goals; 50 will put him at 708. For him to catch Esposito, he'd have to have his second-best season ever... I think a 59 goal season may be out of reach, even for Ovi. 

At the end of the season, though,  I see Ovi as having more goals than Mark Messier and maaaaaybe tied with or one more than Mike Gartner. More likely, he'll fall between the two.

 

Thursday, April 4, 2019

[08-JUN-2018] Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? Am I only dreaming? Or is this burning an eternal flame?

I am bouncing off the walls. 

Last night... it finally happened! Alex Ovechkin has hoisted the Stanley Cup, and passed it to his teammates, his coach, and Uncle Ted. The Caps have drunk champagne from the chalice of victory! WHEW! It's been a long time coming!


And I can't believe I never posted this! 

#LetsGoCaps! #BackToBack! #BackToBack! #BackToBack!

[4-APR-2019] Revisiting an old post...

[10-Nov-2015] Let's talk about some more records...

Most overtime goals currently belongs to Jaromir Jagr, with 19, scored in 1562 games.

Ovechkin has 15 in his 772 games, good for third all  time, and tied with Mats Sundin (15 in 1346) and our old friend Sergei Fedorov (15 in 1248). I see Ovi easily eclipsing this mark in his career, especially now that overtime is 3-on-3 instead of 4-on-4...

Most game winning goals also belongs to Jagr, with 129 in 1562 games played.

Ovechkin has 81 in his 772 games, good for 24th place. I also see Ovi eclipsing this mark. He needs only 48 game winning goals to get there.

Most power play goals belongs to Joe Sakic, with 631 in 1378 games played.

Ovechkin is in 48th place, with 357 in his 772 games. He needs 274 more to catch Sakic, and I think he will do that as well...

Ovi has taken over most overtime goals, with 22 (and counting).

He's moved up to 7th place in GWGs, with 107, leaving him to need only 28 to eclipse Jagr's 135. Jagr has since retired, and there are no active players standing in Ovi's way.

And he's moved up to 4th place in PPGs, with 247, leaving him to need 27 to catch Andreychuk, again, with no active players in his way.

As for goals, in general, we already talked about that, but NHL.com is now indicating that Ovi actually wants to try to break Gretzky's record. I can't wait to see if he can do it. 

Never bet against Ovi. :-)  

Also, since the Caps play the Habs tonight... I hope this post isn't a jinx! 

Sunday, March 31, 2019

[31-MAR-2019] #OviWatch #50Goals #51Goals

Last night against Tampa Bay, in a 6-3 victory, Our Hero scored his 50th and 51st goals of the 2018-19 season, with three games to go. (Only three??! Where did the season go??!)

01 - Wayne Gretzky    - 894 G in 1487 GP +236
02 - Gordie Howe      - 801 G in 1767 GP +144
03 - Jaromír Jágr     - 765 G in 1714 GP +107
04 - Brett Hull       - 741 G in 1269 GP + 84
05 - Marcel Dionne    - 731 G in 1348 GP + 74
06 - Phil Esposito    - 717 G in 1282 GP + 58
07 - Mike Gartner     - 708 G in 1432 GP + 50
08 - Mark Messier     - 694 G in 1756 GP + 36
09 - Steve Yzerman    - 692 G in 1514 GP + 34
10 - Mario Lemieux    - 690 G in  915 GP + 32
11 - Teemu Selänne    - 684 G in 1451 GP + 26

-----------------------------------------------------
12 - Luc Robataille   - 667 G in 1431 GP + 9 not likely
----------------------------------------------------- 

13 - Alex Ovechkin    - 658 G in 1079 GP
13 - Brendan Shanahan - 656 G in 1431 GP


Ovi is now in sole possession of 13th place all time. While it's not likely that he gets nine goals in the next three games, and I wouldn't bet on it, I wouldn't bet against it, either, given it's Ovi. I've learned not to bet against the Great 8.

As both RMNB and Japers' pointed out this last week, Ovi has had a remarkably consistent career: 328 goals in his first 540 games, 328 goals in his second 540 games. And as Twitter Tweeter @caleb_adams3 pointed out:

Gretzky's record: 894 goals Swap Gretzky's 8 and 9 and what do you get? 984 goals Ovi's new record: 328 * 3 = 984 goals 'Tis the prophecy. @caleb_adams3
If Ovi manages to play in another 540 games (535 games beyond the end of this season - that's roughly another 6-1/2 seasons) and scores 328 goals in that time period, the League will bow to him, and so will every mother's son on this planet, as the undisputed GOAT. 

As of today, Ovi is tied with Luc Robataille with 247 power play goals for 4th all time. 

01 - Dave Andreychuk - 274 PPG in 1639 GP +27
02 - Brett Hull      - 265 PPG in 1269 GP +18
03 - Teemu Selanne   - 255 PPG in 1451 GP + 8
04 - Alex Ovechkin   - 247 PPG in 1081 GP

In other milestones:

Nicklas Backstrom scored his 20th and 21st goals of the season last night, and T.J. Oshie scored his 24th and 25th goals of the season. Backstrom is the 7th Capital to score at least 20 goals this year (Kuznetsov-20, Backstrom-21, Connolly-22, Wilson-22, Vrana-23, Oshie-25, and Ovi-51). Not a bad haul, and though Carlson, with 13, is about as likely to hit 20 as Ovi is to hit 60, with only three games left... well, if they did it, it'd be one hell of a feat, wouldn't it?
 

  

Wednesday, March 27, 2019

[27-MAR-2019] #OviWatch and Other Milestones

Last night, facing Carolina, Ovi bagged his 49th goal of the season. He's tied Brendan Shanahan, with five games to go in the regular season. Next game  is also Carolina, on Thursday.

01 - Wayne Gretzky    - 894 G in 1487 GP +238
02 - Gordie Howe      - 801 G in 1767 GP +145
03 - Jaromír Jágr     - 765 G in 1714 GP +109
04 - Brett Hull       - 741 G in 1269 GP + 85
05 - Marcel Dionne    - 731 G in 1348 GP + 75
06 - Phil Esposito    - 717 G in 1282 GP + 61
07 - Mike Gartner     - 708 G in 1432 GP + 52
08 - Mark Messier     - 694 G in 1756 GP + 38
09 - Steve Yzerman    - 692 G in 1514 GP + 36
10 - Mario Lemieux    - 690 G in  915 GP + 34
11 - Teemu Selänne    - 684 G in 1451 GP + 28

-----------------------------------------------------
12 - Luc Robataille   - 667 G in 1431 GP + 11 not likely
----------------------------------------------------- 

13 - Alex Ovechkin    - 656 G in 1079 GP
13 - Brendan Shanahan - 656 G in 1431 GP

Friday, March 8, 2019

[8-MAR-2019] 14 games to go...

The playoffs are starting to shape up, just a teensy bit. 

I started my spreadsheet today, as I typically do this time of year. I would not bet on Ottawa, Detroit, or the Devils from New Jersey making the playoffs this year. I also wouldn't bet on the Ducks or the Kings, who have a handful more points than the basement-dwelling Sens. 

Poor, hapless Ottawa has played 68 games, and have only 52 points to show for it. Their 23-39-6 record is bad enough to put them in last place. The Kings aren't doing much  better, at 24-35-8 in 67 games played (56 points). But when it comes to goal differential, Anaheim is the one in the basement, with -58. 

Ouch.

The Caps have come a long way from 1974-75 with their 8-67-5 record. That season, the Caps scored 181 goals, and were scored on 446 times. They hold the record, one they never wanted, for the worst start in the NHL. 

The question this year is, can they go back to back, win another Stanley Cup? 

If the playoffs started today... 

Cripes. This playoff format stinks!

"The top seed in each division plays one of the wild-card teams in its conference. The division leader with the most points plays the wild-card team with the fewest points. The second and third seeds in each division face each other in the first round." (S/T ESPN.com). 

Tampa Bay is hands down the top seed in the Eastern Conference, and in the Atlantic Division. That gives them Montreal, currently 8th seed.

The Islanders are top seed in the Metropolitan Division. That gives them Carolina, currently the 7th seed.

Boston gets Toronto... Which sticks the Caps with the Penguins, ugh!

14 games remaining. 28 possible points. 

The first of those is tonight, when the Caps face the Devils.

New Jersey is, quite frankly, in trouble, injury-wise. 

  • Pavel Zacha (C, 11G, 6A) is out from an upper-body injury. 
  • John Quenneville ((C, 0G, 0A), first cousin, once removed of Joel) is day-to-day, with a hand injury.
  • Kevin Rooney (C, 4G, 2A) is day-to-day, illness.
  • Nico Hischier (C, 17G, 27A) is day-to-day, upper body.
  • Kyle Palmieri (RW, 26G, 22A) is day-to-day, lower body.
  • Nathan Bastian (RW, 1G, 0A) has an upper body injury. 
  • Jesper Bratt (LW, 8 G, 25A) is out, lower body.
  • Taylor Hall (LW, 11G, 26A) is out, knee surgery. 
  • Miles Wood (LW, 8G, 13A) is out, fractured ankle.
  • Mirco Mueller (D, 1G, 9A) is out, upper body (shoulder).
  • Will Butcher (D, 4G, 20A) is day-to-day, upper body.
In a word? Ouch! 

So, for centers, the Devils have:

  • Blake Coleman, 18G, 12A
  • Michael McLeod, 0G, 0A
  • Travis Zajac, 15G, 23A

By contrast, the Caps are icing their full roster. So, will they take the Devils seriously? Or will they coast. It's a damned good question... 

All About the Jersey calls Ovi the "Great Ape." 

*narrows eyes* We shall see. We. Shall. See. 

As a side note, I truly wish that Miroslav Satan had played at least one game for the Devils before he retired. He'd have been their natural captain!



Friday, February 22, 2019

[22-FEB-2019] #OviWatch

01 - Wayne Gretzky    - 894 G in 1487 GP +244
02 - Gordie Howe      - 801 G in 1767 GP +151
03 - Jaromír Jágr     - 765 G in 1714 GP +115
04 - Brett Hull       - 741 G in 1269 GP + 91
05 - Marcel Dionne    - 731 G in 1348 GP + 81
06 - Phil Esposito    - 717 G in 1282 GP + 67
07 - Mike Gartner     - 708 G in 1432 GP + 58
08 - Mark Messier     - 694 G in 1756 GP + 44
09 - Steve Yzerman    - 692 G in 1514 GP + 42
10 - Mario Lemieux    - 690 G in  915 GP + 40
11 - Teemu Selänne    - 684 G in 1451 GP + 34

-----------------------------------------------------
12 - Luc Robataille   - 667 G in 1431 GP + 17 possible
-----------------------------------------------------
13 - Brendan Shanahan - 656 G in 1431 GP +  6 probable
-----------------------------------------------------
14 - Alex Ovechkin    - 650 G in 1063 GP
15 - Dave Andreychuk  - 640 G in 1639 GP


Another night, another milestone. Ovi hit his 650th goal last night against the Toronto Maple Leafs, beating goaltender Frederik Andersen like he was mired in molasses. Another one-timer, from a crisp pass from John Carlson, and just like that, the Caps were up 1-0. They would go on to win the game 3-2. 

Ovi is now just six goals behind Brendan Shanahan, and 7 goals from another 50-goal season. He now sits a mere 244 goals behind Gretzky. Though his pace has slacked off from the torrid start of the season, with 22 games remaining in the season, here are the numbers:

43/60 = 0.716 * 82 = 58.766

So he could still conceivably hit 60 goals this season. Selanne doesn't look likely, but then, he didn't look likely to begin with this season. Robataille is still possible, if Ovi hits the back of the net 17 more times in the next 22 games.

17/22 = 0.773 so it's just a little bit over his current pace... and I've always said never to bet against Ovi. It's kinda like betting against the house in Las Vegas. 

So. If Ovi scores 60 this year, that will put him at 667 goals, and a tie with Robataille. Poetry, huh? 

The next couple of years will be tricky.

2019-20: 50 goals next year would put him at 717, tied with Esposito at #6
2020-21: 45 goals the following year would put him at 762, ahead of Brett Hull for #4, and behind Jagr for #3.
--------END CONTRACT--------
2021-22: 40 goals the year after that?  792 puts him ahead of Jagr and behind Gordie Howe.
2022-23: 35 goals the year after that? 827, ahead of Howe for #2.
2023-24: 30 goals the year after that? 857
2024-25: 25 goals? 882
2025-26: 20 goals? 902

So in 7 seasons, Ovi could surpass Gretzky, even dropping off 5 goals per year off his total. Is that math likely? I don't know; I'm neither a stats geek nor anything other than a fan. 

But will Ovi re-sign with the Caps when his contract ends? There is an event coming in 2022 that will either make or break that decision. 

BEIJING 2022

If the NHL withholds players from the 2022 Olympic Games, then Ovi will almost certainly go home to play for the KHL. His dream of an Olympic medal is the one thing left to fulfill. Catching Gretzky? That's a low, low second or third or fourth place to winning an Olympic gold medal. Any color medal, really. 

The NHL wants a market in China. But will that be enough? Will Gary Bettman, lawyer, and lockout specialist force Ovi to choose between continuing his NHL career and playing for Russia? 

If he does, it's going to really piss a lot of people off.

Wednesday, February 6, 2019

[06-FEB-2018] #OviWatch #Great8 #RussianScoringRecord

01 - Wayne Gretzky    - 894 G in 1487 GP +250
02 - Gordie Howe      - 801 G in 1767 GP +157
03 - Jaromír Jágr     - 765 G in 1714 GP +121
04 - Brett Hull       - 741 G in 1269 GP + 97
05 - Marcel Dionne    - 731 G in 1348 GP + 87
06 - Phil Esposito    - 717 G in 1282 GP + 73
07 - Mike Gartner     - 708 G in 1432 GP + 64
08 - Mark Messier     - 694 G in 1756 GP + 50
09 - Steve Yzerman    - 692 G in 1514 GP + 48
10 - Mario Lemieux    - 690 G in  915 GP + 46
11 - Teemu Selänne    - 684 G in 1451 GP + 40 not bloody likely

-----------------------------------------------------
12 - Luc Robataille   - 667 G in 1431 GP + 23 possible
-----------------------------------------------------
13 - Brendan Shanahan - 656 G in 1431 GP + 12 probable
-----------------------------------------------------
14 - Alex Ovechkin    - 644 G in 1055 GP
15 - Dave Andreychuk  - 640 G in 1639 GP 


Last night, Ovi passed Fedorov for most points by a Russian-born player, with a secondary assist on a goal by T.J. Oshie, 3:00 into the 1st frame. The final score of the game was 3-2 Washington, as they defeated the Canucks at home.

 
01 - Alex Ovechkin    - 1180 P in 1055 GP
02 - Sergei Fedorov   - 1179 P in 1248 GP
03 - Alexander Moligny- 1032 P in  990 GP
04 - Alex Kovalev     - 1029 P in 1316 GP
05 - Evgeni Malkin    -  985 P in  834 GP  

[23-JAN-2019] #OviWatch

Loss after loss after loss... the Caps are in a slide. A bad one. A six game slide. It's ugly. The one bright spot, though? Ovi has 36 goals this season in 49 games played. But even that's slower than his torrid start. He's still on pace for 60, but only just. 

In his career, Ovi has 643 goals in 1052 games played. That puts him three goals ahead of Dave Andreychuk, for sole possession of 14th. 


01 - Wayne Gretzky    - 894 G in 1487 GP +251
02 - Gordie Howe      - 801 G in 1767 GP +158
03 - Jaromír Jágr     - 765 G in 1714 GP +122
04 - Brett Hull       - 741 G in 1269 GP + 98
05 - Marcel Dionne    - 731 G in 1348 GP + 88
06 - Phil Esposito    - 717 G in 1282 GP + 74
07 - Mike Gartner     - 708 G in 1432 GP + 65
08 - Mark Messier     - 694 G in 1756 GP + 51
09 - Steve Yzerman    - 692 G in 1514 GP + 49
10 - Mario Lemieux    - 690 G in  915 GP + 47
11 - Teemu Selänne    - 684 G in 1451 GP + 41 not bloody likely

-----------------------------------------------------
12 - Luc Robataille   - 667 G in 1431 GP + 24 possible
-----------------------------------------------------
13 - Brendan Shanahan - 656 G in 1431 GP + 13 probable
-----------------------------------------------------
14 - Alex Ovechkin    - 643 G in 1052 GP Tied
15 - Dave Andreychuk  - 640 G in 1639 GP 


This means our hero needs 251 goals to catch Gretzky. 

Gretzky                         Ovi
1979-80.....51 G in   79 GP     2005-06.....52 G in   81 GP
1980-81.....55 G in   80 GP     2006-07.....46 G in   82 GP
1981-82.....92 G in   80 GP     2007-08.....65 G in   82 GP
1982-83.....71 G in   80 GP     2008-09.....56 G in   79 GP
1983-84.....87 G in   74 GP     2009-10.....50 G in   72 GP
1984-85.....73 G in   80 GP     2010-11.....32 G in   79 GP
1985-86.....52 G in   80 GP     2011-12.....38 G in   78 GP
1986-87.....62 G in   79 GP     2012-13.....32 G in   48 GP *lockout
1987-88.....40 G in   64 GP     2013-14.....51 G in   78 GP
1988-89.....54 G in   76 GP     2014-15.....53 G in   81 GP
1989-90.....40 G in   73 GP     2015-16.....50 G in   79 GP
1990-91.....41 G in   78 GP     2016-17.....33 G in   82 GP
1991-92.....31 G in   74 GP     2017-18.....49 G in   82 GP
1992-93.....16 G in   45 GP     2018-19.....36 G in   49 GP so far
1993-94.....38 G in   81 GP     --------------------------------
1994-95.....11 G in   48 GP                643 G in 1052 GP
1995-96.....15 G in   62 GP
1996-97.....25 G in   82 GP
1997-98.....23 G in   82 GP
1998-99......9 G in   70 GP
-------------------------
           894 G in 1487 GP

He has 6-1/2 more seasons before he's played in the same number of seasons as Gretzky. Assuming he finishes this season with 50 goals... that will put him at 657 goals, needing 237 goals to catch Gretzky. He needs an average of 39.5 goals for the next six seasons to do that.

I'm not

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