[05-FEB-2020] #OviWatch - The Great 8 is #8 and Climbing

Last night, Ovi put away his third hat trick - THIRD! in the last seven games! Add to that a pair of two-goal games, and we have a total of 14 goals in seven games, and Ovi is now sitting pretty with 40 goals on the season.


That puts his total at 698 goals. This means he needs fewer than 200 goals to catch Gretzky!

01 - Wayne Gretzky............894 G - 196
02 - Gordie Howe..............801 G - 103
03 - Jaromir Jagr.............766 G -  68
04 - Brett Hull...............741 G -  43
05 - Marcel Dionne............731 G -  33
06 - Phil Esposito............717 G -  19
--------------------------------------------Possible---
07 - Mike Gartner.............708 G -  10
--------------------------------------------Probable---
08 - Alex Ovechkin............698 G 

With his 40th goal of the season, Ovi now has eleven 40-goal seasons in his career. Next up, if he can do that another time? He'll tie Gretzky for the most 40-goal seasons in a career. Twice? He'll be undisputed #1 in his own right.

Ovi has played in 53 of the Caps' 54 games, due to a one-game suspension for skipping the All-Star game, probably a wise move on his part. Let's do some math.

40 / 53 = 0.754 * 81 = 61.132 for Ovi's current pace.

82 - 53 = 29 games remaining in the season

61 - 40 = 19 goals needed to hit 61

19 / 29 = 0.655 goals per game for the rest of the year

698 / 1137 = 0.614 career

If - and this is a HUGE if - Ovi can hit the back of the net 19 more times, that will put him with 717 goals, and tied with Phil Esposito, something that at the beginning of the season, I put down as vastly unlikely! 

If - and this is a HUGE if - Ovi can keep scoring at a pace only slightly hotter than his career average for the rest of the season, he will end the year with 61 goals, beating his second-best season of 56 goals, which he got in 2008-09. That's eleven years ago!

An even bigger if, and likely not going to happen, unless Ovi is seriously on a tear beyond any tear he has ever been on in the history of his Ovi-ness... 26 goals in 29 games? That's what he needs for 66 goals, and to best his 2007-08 season, where he got 65. That's CRAZY! I am in no way, shape, or form thinking it's even remotely possible, but... Ovi. 

66 - 40 =  26 goals needed to hit 66

26 / 29 =  0.897 goals per game for the rest of the year... not bloody likely!

[17-JAN-2020] #OviWatch

01 - Wayne Gretzky............894 G - 205
02 - Gordie Howe..............801 G - 112
03 - Jaromir Jagr.............766 G -  77
04 - Brett Hull...............741 G -  52
05 - Marcel Dionne............731 G -  42
06 - Phil Esposito............717 G -  28
--------------------------------------------Possible---
07 - Mike Gartner.............708 G -  19
--------------------------------------------Probable---
08 - Mark Messier.............694 G -   5
09 - Steve Yzerman............692 G -   3
10 - Mario Lemieux............690 G -   1
11 - Alex Ovechkin............689 G

One more goal, and Our Hero ties Mario Lemieux. I stand by what I said at the beginning of the season; by the end of the season, Ovi will have surpassed Mark Messier, and maybe Mike Gartner. Phil Esposito is still within the realm of possibility.  At .646 goals per game over an 82 game season, Ovi is on pace for 52-53 goals. He's got 31 in 48 games, so he'll have to work at it if he wants to catch Espo... but I have learned not to bet against the Great Eight, like... ever.