[27-DEC-2022] #OviWatch... And then there was only #99

When Our Hero Alex Ovechkin scored his 798th, 799th, and 800th goals (and a hat trick), I was ecstatic for him, but when he scored 801st and 802nd goals against Winnipeg, giving him 22 goals over 36 games this season, I found myself bouncing off the walls for days. Today, the Caps are in New York taking on the Rangers, and I have no doubt they will be gunning for the Captain. I'm still bouncing off the walls!

At .611 goals per game this season, Ovi is on pace to score 50 again... his goals/game average for his career is .612. 

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +92
Alex Ovechkin        1310      802

If Ovi gets to 50 goals this season, it will put him at 830 goals in 1,356 games. 

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +64
Alex Ovechkin        1310      830

On November 9, 2015, I went out on a limb and said I believed Ovi would beat Gretzky's record one day. At the time, Ovi had only 483 goals. Now, I could not have predicted two seasons shortened by the COVID-19 pandemic (grumble), but at the time, I was just about the only hockey blogger talking about it. Today, that has all changed; it started last season, and now, it's the talk of the hour: it's not if Ovi will catch and surpass Gretzky; it's when. 

Today, I am going to go way out on a limb. 

Gretzky played in 1,487 games in his illustrious career. Ovi has played in 1,310 and has 176 games to catch Gretzky to do it faster than Gretzky did. 

There are 46 games left this season. Add 82 games for 2023-24, and 48 games for 2024-25 for the total of 176 games. If Ovi keeps up his .611 goals per game, he will be on pace to score 107 goals over those 176 games, taking his career total on game 48 of his 2024-25 season to 909. 

Yes, I believe that Ovi can do it faster than Gretzky did. 

Now, to check my math:

22/36 = .611

82+46+48=176

176 * .611 = 107.536

802 + 107 = 909. 

My blog isn't one of the ones the big guys - Japers' Rink, Russian Machine Never Breaks - ever picks up on. It's quiet, and I'm probably its only reader. I don't publish regularly, but I wanted to get this out there in front of whoever happens across my blog. What am I going on here? Sheer gut instinct. I'm not a statistician; I have to redo my numbers repeatedly to check myself. But my gut instincts have not been bad over the years... so we'll see.

It's December 27, 2022, and I say Ovi will beat Gretzky's record and take fewer games than Gretzky played to do it. 

[12-DEC-2022] #OviWatch at 30 games played

Our Hero, Alex Ovechkin, now has 797 goals at (17/30) games played this season; he has not missed a game so far. The Caps' record is less than stellar so far this year, but they have just won their fourth in a row - a good streak to keep building on! 

Here's where he stacks up now:

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +97
Gordie Howe          1767      801        + 4
Alex Ovechkin        1304      797

I'm really rooting for Ovi this season! He is scoring at a rate of 0.566 goals per game, which puts him on pace for 46 goals this season, if he plays all 82 games. If he hits that, he will be at 826 career goals, well ahead of Gordie Howe, and he will have to score only 68 goals over the next three seasons to catch Gretzky (22 goals per season, with one season at 23 goals). 

Prediction (2022-23) 45 goals:

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +69
Alex Ovechkin        1362      825

Prediction (2023-24) 35 goals:

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +34
Alex Ovechkin        1442      860 

Prediction (2024-25) 30 goals: 

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Alex Ovechkin        1522      895

Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        -1

Prediction (2025-26) 25 goals:

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Alex Ovechkin        1522      920

Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        -26

I admit my math isn't always perfect, and I've probably erred somewhere here, but I stand by my numbers: When Ovi retires he will have a minimum of 920 goals, leaving Wayne Gretzky in the dust. All 920+ will have been scored for the same team, too!

I'm also saying this: If the Caps get both Wilson and Backstrom back this season, we will go deep in the playoffs, and may well win our second Stanley Cup. I want it to happen, so I am willing them to come back healthy and ready to play! 

#LetsGoCaps!

[23-AUG-2022] #OviWatch Predictions for 2022-23

 At the close of the 2021-22 season, Our Hero Alex Ovechkin had scored FIFTY GOALS! FIFTY!!!! That puts him firmly in the #3 position of all time, with four years remaining on his contract, which ends in 2025-26. How does he stack up? Let's take a look...

Player                 GP     G      vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky         1487    894    +114
Gordie Howe           1767    801    + 21
Alex Ovechkin         1274    780 

Ovi needs 115 goals in four years. That's 28.75 goals a year...

In 2022-23, I will go on record as saying I believe Ovi will score a minimum of 40 goals in a minimum of 70 games played. 

Player                 GP     G      vs. Ovi

Wayne Gretzky        1487    894    + 74

Alex Ovechkin        1314    820

Ovi is definitely going to come out of this season, barring injury, ahead of Gordie Howe, and closer than he is now to Gretzky. 

Also, Uncle Vladimir can go suck rocks. 

[16-JUN-2022] #OviWatch #Backstrom #LetsGoCaps!

At the close of the 2021-22 season, Our Hero Alex Ovechkin had scored FIFTY GOALS! FIFTY!!!! That puts him firmly in the #3 position of all time, with four years remaining on his contract, which ends in 2025-26. How does he stack up? Let's take a look...

Player                 GP     G      vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky         1487    894    +114
Gordie Howe           1767    801    + 21
Alex Ovechkin         1274    780 

Ovi needs 115 goals in four years. That's 28.75 goals a year. Now, obviously, one can't score .75 of a goal, so we'll round up. If Ovi scores 30 goals a season for the remaining four years of his career, that would give him 120 goals, and put him firmly in first place. Then maybe Gretzky will give him a stick... 

Incidentally, last season, Ovi only played 77 games, putting his goals/game average at 0.64935, which is pretty damn good for a 38-year-old! 

On another note, the Russian invasion of Ukraine this year can't have helped his mental health, given his wife, his sons, and his parents were - and are - in Russia. Please don't try and tell me that he should speak out against the invasion, in favor of LGBTQIA+ rights, etc. when Putin could quite literally disappear his entire family without a trace if he chose to speak against him and nobody would dare to say a word. I just hope he can get out to come back next fall - and that his family comes with him this time. All of them. I am very much afraid that Putin will make him choose between his family and the NHL, and that would be awful for us as Caps fans, but for him as a human being. 

#Backstrom

Poor Nicky... that hip injury is just getting worse, and he's going to have to do something about it. Sure, he still has all the hockey smarts he ever did, but the speed just is not there, and I feel that with every step my 56-nearly-57-year-old-bones take. Surgery in the off season is a distinct possibility, and from what I am seeing on other sites, the return from the type of surgery he needs would be an long uphill battle. I know he and Ovi want to retire together, and I know as surely as I know my name that he wants to be on the ice when - not if, when - Ovi takes the crown away from Gretzky. I hope the hockey gods will let it happen, but more importantly, I hope Backstrom's health improves and allows him to continue playing that long...