[06-SEP-2024] #OviWatch #2024-25 #Predictions

When I read through the translation of an interview Ovi gave about his plans to move back to Russia when his hockey career ended, it made me sad... Russia, with their unjust invasion of Ukraine? Good God, WHY?! But, as he said, Russia is his home... he isn't a political creature, so he says, though he is a friend to Russia's dictator, Vladimir Putin, and, well... there's a limit to what he can say in public. His family lives in Russia, under Putin's dictatorship, and we know what Putin is capable of... why would he want to go back to THAT? I wish to God I knew... Ovi was born in the USSR. Most Russian players, as far as I can tell, don't really participate in Pride events during the hockey season, but I don't know if that is a reflection of their true feelings or a reflection of their projected feelings while living under a dictator. He could raise his sons here, where they could grow up free... he's wealthy, he's the most successful hockey goal scorer of our age. Why Russia? But, of course,  his mother lives there, a widow, and he loves his mother dearly. I can see why she wouldn't want to change, after living and breathing Russia her entire life. Ovi has spent more than half of his playing hockey for the Capitals, and considers Washington, DC to be his second home. It makes me sad. I have some hopes for Russia to come out of their obsession with having Putin in charge... all of the death coming from the invasion of Ukraine... but most of the people in Russia believe Putin's propaganda: Ukraine is evil. Ukraine is Fascist. Ukraine is... a place we want because of its lithium, its arable land, its wheat... Putin is a monster. I don't want Ovi to be. I just want my hockey hero to be a hockey hero... but Putin's cloud is over his head.

Ah, enough of politics... on to the important stuff.

Ovi finished last season with 31 goals, largely because he only started scoring about 36 games from the end of the season. Why this happened, I don't know. New coach, the loss of his long-time assist partner Nick Backstrom, his own age starting to catch up with him... doesn't matter; it happened. 

Player        Games Played  Goals     Difference
Wayne Gretzky    1487        894        +41
Alex Ovechkin    1426        853        

Ovi needs 41 goals to tie, 42 goals to break Gretzky's all-time record. Can it happen this season? Only time will tell... Will he retire immediately, or will he try to score six more goals after breaking Gretzky's record to get to the first and only NHL player with 900 goals? I don't want the Ovi era to end... is it because he's so exciting to watch? But I am starting this season with a sense of... depression, I think? The war in Ukraine, the idea of Ovi wanting to go to a home that is under the thumb of a dictator when he stops playing for the Caps... I don't know. I'm just.... not all that excited this year, about hockey, or anything else.

I hope to Christ Harris wins in November. If the wannabe dictator does, I'm going to Iceland. 

[17-APR-2024] #OviWatch: Entering the Post Season after last year's miss...

Ovi started the season with a goal pace that would hold him to a total of 34 goals for the season after his scoring picked back up in the second half, but leaving him tied with Lucas Raymond (Detroit RedWings), Yegor Sharangovich (Calgary Flames), and Jordan Kyrou (St. Louis Blues) for 36th in league scoring, but that is OK!

Ovi now stands at 853 goals in his illustrious career, from a season marred by the loss of long-time partner Nicklas Bäckström, who was unable to return to the ice at the level he wanted to play after his hip resurfacing surgery last year. It wasn't an unexpected loss, but it did kick our hero in the teeth, and probably hard, especially following so close on the death of his father, Mikhail, last year. For now, Bäckström is on long-term injured reserve, but who knows? Stranger things have happened... like the Caps making the playoffs this year! Who knows? Nicky might one day make his return, just for a couple of games, to assist Ovi to the all-time goal scoring record one day.

Player        Games Played  Goals     Difference
Wayne Gretzky    1487        894        +44
Alex Ovechkin    1426        853        

44 goals with two more full seasons on Ovi's contract? Even at 31 goals a year, he will have 915 goals when his contract ends! Career, his goals per game is nearly 0.6 (0.5981), scarcely behind Gretzky's 0.6012.

As for the points race... well, Villain Sidney Crosby jumped a few spots this season (but the Penguins didn't make the Big Show, so there is that!) Ovi and Sid are the only active players in the top 15 all time points scorers. 

Player        Games Played  Points   Difference   PPG    

Wayne Gretzky    1487        2857    +1307        1.921

Jaromir Jagr     1733        1921    + 371        1.108

Mark Messier     1756        1887    + 337        1.074        

Gordie Howe      1767        1850    + 300        1.054

Ron Francis      1731        1798    + 248        1.039

Marcel Dionne    1348        1771    + 221        1.313

Steve Yzerman    1514        1755    + 205        1.133

Mario Lemieux     915        1723    + 173        1.883

Joe Sakic        1378        1641    +  91        1.191

Sidney Crosby    1271        1594    +  44        1.254 (92/81=1.136)

Phil Esposito    1282        1590    +  40        1.240

Ray Bourque      1612        1579    +  29        0.979

Alex Ovechkin    1426        1550                 1.086 (65/79=0.823)

Joe Thornton     1714        1539    -  11        0.897

Sid outperformed Ovi this season, but hey... the Penguins are on the outside looking into the playoffs, and that, in the end, is what is most important to Ovechkin. 

My prediction put Sid with 1550 points - what Ovi ended up with this year, and put Ovi with 1542 points, so both players outperformed my prediction, but Ovi's slow start really hurt. Thankfully, it didn't hurt the team as badly! Ovi did overtake Joe Thornton, as did Crosby, whose 92 points also overtook both Ray Bourque and Phil Esposito in a damn good season.

I'm not going to troll the Penguins anymore for missing the playoffs; it really did come right down to the last game, but the Caps beat the Flyers, and squeaked in, and the Pens, with one game remaining, cannot catch them... neither, for that matter, can the Flyers.

And so, with one last game on the schedule for some teams, the hunt for Lord Stanley's Beer Mug will begin very soon... and the grid is already locked down. The Caps face the Presidents' Trophy-winning Rangers in Round 1. 

I am not going to try and do statistics beyond "who has the most goals/points, etc." - and pray.

Hail Rocket, full of goals,

The puck is with thee!

Blessed art thou among scorers,

And blessed is the fruit of they stick, goals!

Holy Rocket, scorer divine,

Pray for our Capitals,

Now, and at the hour of puck drop.

Saint Jacques of the First Mask,

Defend us on the ice!

Be our protection against the goals of our enemies

And do thou, o Prince of Goaltenders

By the power of thy stick

Cast from the goal mouth all Rangers' pucks,

Protect us from 'own goals' and keep our net safe

From those seeking the end of our playoffs.

AMEN!