[23-AUG-2022] #OviWatch Predictions for 2022-23

 At the close of the 2021-22 season, Our Hero Alex Ovechkin had scored FIFTY GOALS! FIFTY!!!! That puts him firmly in the #3 position of all time, with four years remaining on his contract, which ends in 2025-26. How does he stack up? Let's take a look...

Player                 GP     G      vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky         1487    894    +114
Gordie Howe           1767    801    + 21
Alex Ovechkin         1274    780 

Ovi needs 115 goals in four years. That's 28.75 goals a year...

In 2022-23, I will go on record as saying I believe Ovi will score a minimum of 40 goals in a minimum of 70 games played. 

Player                 GP     G      vs. Ovi

Wayne Gretzky        1487    894    + 74

Alex Ovechkin        1314    820

Ovi is definitely going to come out of this season, barring injury, ahead of Gordie Howe, and closer than he is now to Gretzky. 

Also, Uncle Vladimir can go suck rocks. 

[16-JUN-2022] #OviWatch #Backstrom #LetsGoCaps!

At the close of the 2021-22 season, Our Hero Alex Ovechkin had scored FIFTY GOALS! FIFTY!!!! That puts him firmly in the #3 position of all time, with four years remaining on his contract, which ends in 2025-26. How does he stack up? Let's take a look...

Player                 GP     G      vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky         1487    894    +114
Gordie Howe           1767    801    + 21
Alex Ovechkin         1274    780 

Ovi needs 115 goals in four years. That's 28.75 goals a year. Now, obviously, one can't score .75 of a goal, so we'll round up. If Ovi scores 30 goals a season for the remaining four years of his career, that would give him 120 goals, and put him firmly in first place. Then maybe Gretzky will give him a stick... 

Incidentally, last season, Ovi only played 77 games, putting his goals/game average at 0.64935, which is pretty damn good for a 38-year-old! 

On another note, the Russian invasion of Ukraine this year can't have helped his mental health, given his wife, his sons, and his parents were - and are - in Russia. Please don't try and tell me that he should speak out against the invasion, in favor of LGBTQIA+ rights, etc. when Putin could quite literally disappear his entire family without a trace if he chose to speak against him and nobody would dare to say a word. I just hope he can get out to come back next fall - and that his family comes with him this time. All of them. I am very much afraid that Putin will make him choose between his family and the NHL, and that would be awful for us as Caps fans, but for him as a human being. 

#Backstrom

Poor Nicky... that hip injury is just getting worse, and he's going to have to do something about it. Sure, he still has all the hockey smarts he ever did, but the speed just is not there, and I feel that with every step my 56-nearly-57-year-old-bones take. Surgery in the off season is a distinct possibility, and from what I am seeing on other sites, the return from the type of surgery he needs would be an long uphill battle. I know he and Ovi want to retire together, and I know as surely as I know my name that he wants to be on the ice when - not if, when - Ovi takes the crown away from Gretzky. I hope the hockey gods will let it happen, but more importantly, I hope Backstrom's health improves and allows him to continue playing that long... 

[27-Jul-2021] Wow... COVID sucks.

Welcome to 2021.

The Caps just re-signed our hero Alex Ovechkin to a five year deal!

At the end of the 2020-21 season, Ovi had scored a career total of 730 goals in 1,197 games. Nobody can say that 2019-20 or 2020-21 were normal seasons. 

So, where do we stand? 

Player                 GP     G      

Wayne Gretzky         1487   894 +164

Gordie Howe           1767   801 + 71

Jaromir Jagr          1733   766 + 36

Brett Hull            1269   741 + 11

Marcel Dionne         1348   731 +  1

Alex Ovechkin         1197   730

I think it is completely safe to say that Ovi will catch Marcel Dionne this season. If he plays all 82 games, I also believe Jagr's #3 position is in reach. Ovi's career average is .61 goals per game (OK, .609857); over an 82-game season, that amounts to 50 goals... Last season, he was a big chunk off that average, with 24 goals across 45 games, putting him at .533 goals/game. Over an 82-game season, that amounts to 43 goals. So, splitting the difference in a completely unscientific fashion, 46 goals still puts Ovi above Jagr at the end of the year. 

I believe if Ovi stays healthy this season, he can do it. 

With 165 goals to beat Gretzky and 5 years to score them, Ovi needs 33 goals per year. 

It's still within reach, but he'll have to work for it. And maybe in the process, we can win another cup or two. :-)

[05-FEB-2020] #OviWatch - The Great 8 is #8 and Climbing

Last night, Ovi put away his third hat trick - THIRD! in the last seven games! Add to that a pair of two-goal games, and we have a total of 14 goals in seven games, and Ovi is now sitting pretty with 40 goals on the season.


That puts his total at 698 goals. This means he needs fewer than 200 goals to catch Gretzky!

01 - Wayne Gretzky............894 G - 196
02 - Gordie Howe..............801 G - 103
03 - Jaromir Jagr.............766 G -  68
04 - Brett Hull...............741 G -  43
05 - Marcel Dionne............731 G -  33
06 - Phil Esposito............717 G -  19
--------------------------------------------Possible---
07 - Mike Gartner.............708 G -  10
--------------------------------------------Probable---
08 - Alex Ovechkin............698 G 

With his 40th goal of the season, Ovi now has eleven 40-goal seasons in his career. Next up, if he can do that another time? He'll tie Gretzky for the most 40-goal seasons in a career. Twice? He'll be undisputed #1 in his own right.

Ovi has played in 53 of the Caps' 54 games, due to a one-game suspension for skipping the All-Star game, probably a wise move on his part. Let's do some math.

40 / 53 = 0.754 * 81 = 61.132 for Ovi's current pace.

82 - 53 = 29 games remaining in the season

61 - 40 = 19 goals needed to hit 61

19 / 29 = 0.655 goals per game for the rest of the year

698 / 1137 = 0.614 career

If - and this is a HUGE if - Ovi can hit the back of the net 19 more times, that will put him with 717 goals, and tied with Phil Esposito, something that at the beginning of the season, I put down as vastly unlikely! 

If - and this is a HUGE if - Ovi can keep scoring at a pace only slightly hotter than his career average for the rest of the season, he will end the year with 61 goals, beating his second-best season of 56 goals, which he got in 2008-09. That's eleven years ago!

An even bigger if, and likely not going to happen, unless Ovi is seriously on a tear beyond any tear he has ever been on in the history of his Ovi-ness... 26 goals in 29 games? That's what he needs for 66 goals, and to best his 2007-08 season, where he got 65. That's CRAZY! I am in no way, shape, or form thinking it's even remotely possible, but... Ovi. 

66 - 40 =  26 goals needed to hit 66

26 / 29 =  0.897 goals per game for the rest of the year... not bloody likely!

[17-JAN-2020] #OviWatch

01 - Wayne Gretzky............894 G - 205
02 - Gordie Howe..............801 G - 112
03 - Jaromir Jagr.............766 G -  77
04 - Brett Hull...............741 G -  52
05 - Marcel Dionne............731 G -  42
06 - Phil Esposito............717 G -  28
--------------------------------------------Possible---
07 - Mike Gartner.............708 G -  19
--------------------------------------------Probable---
08 - Mark Messier.............694 G -   5
09 - Steve Yzerman............692 G -   3
10 - Mario Lemieux............690 G -   1
11 - Alex Ovechkin............689 G

One more goal, and Our Hero ties Mario Lemieux. I stand by what I said at the beginning of the season; by the end of the season, Ovi will have surpassed Mark Messier, and maybe Mike Gartner. Phil Esposito is still within the realm of possibility.  At .646 goals per game over an 82 game season, Ovi is on pace for 52-53 goals. He's got 31 in 48 games, so he'll have to work at it if he wants to catch Espo... but I have learned not to bet against the Great Eight, like... ever. 

[14-NOV-2019] 20 Game Report Card

#OviWatch


At the start of the season, Ovi had 658 goals. Since that time, he has scored 13 goals, sitting tied for 3rd in the league behind David Pastrnak (BOS-16G) and Leon Draisaitl (EDM-15G).


13 goals in 20 games is a .65 goals-per-game pace. Multiply that by a full 82 game season, and Ovi is on pace for 53 goals... so Mike Gartner is still inside the pace, 20 games in.


Next up, with 684 goals, is Teemu Selänne. Selänne was born in 1970 in Helsinki, Finland (on my 5th birthday, coincidentally), and began his career playing for Helsingin Jokerit (the Helsinki Jesters) in the SM-liiga. Jokerit, incidentally, is now a part of the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL), and is the first team from the Nordic countries to play in that league. He made his NHL debut with the (then) Winnipeg Jets on October 6, 1992. His 76 goals in his first NHL season set the record for rookies; however, he never again matched that total, playing for Winnipeg until February 6, 1996, when he was traded to the Anaheim (then) Mighty Ducks. In 2000-01, he was traded to the San Jose Sharks, where he played until the end of the 2003-04 season; the 2004-05 season was eliminated due to the lockout, and in 2005-06, Selänne returned to Anaheim, where he finished out his career with 1,451 NHL games played, 684 goals scored, 773 assists, and 1457 points. His number, which coincidentally, is 8, was retired by the Ducks on January 11, 2015.


In the 2014 Sochi Olympics, Selänne was named MVP as selected by the media, and the Finnish team both eliminated Russia from the tournament, then defeated the United States in the bronze medal game. He and his wife, Sirpa, have four children: Eemil, Eetu, Leevi, and Veera. They reside in southern California. He collects cars, and has raced in the World Rally Championship twice. He is owner, with Kevin Pratt, of the Selanne Steak Tavern, which has a positively drool-worthy (but expensive) menu, and is located in Laguna Beach, California.


Here's Ovi where he stands right now. My 2019-20 Pre-flections remain as-stated before the season began.


01 - Wayne Gretzky............894 G - 223
02 - Gordie Howe..............801 G - 130
03 - Jaromir Jagr.............766 G -  95
04 - Brett Hull...............741 G -  70
05 - Marcel Dionne............731 G -  60
06 - Phil Esposito............717 G -  46
--------------------------------------------Possible---
07 - Mike Gartner.............708 G -  37
--------------------------------------------Probable---
08 - Mark Messier.............694 G -  23
09 - Steve Yzerman............692 G -  21
10 - Mario Lemieux............690 G -  19
11 - Teemu Selanne............684 G -  13
12 - Alex Ovechkin............671 G
11 - Luc Robataille...........668 G


#NickyWatch


Nicklas Bäckström has quietly moved up the points standings to 118th overall. He's off his usual pace, with 15 points in 20 games played (4G, 11A), though that should pick up as the season continues. His 15 points have been doubled up by John Carlson, who is sitting at 30 (8G, 22A) points in 20 games played right now, and is kicking everyone's ass in that regard, including Ovi's!


The top 5 for the Caps, points-wise, are rounded out with Evgeny Kuznetsov (18 points in 17 games played (8G, 10A)), Jakub Vrana (17 points in 20 games played (8G, 17A)), and Tom Wilson (16 points in 20 games played (8G, 16A)).

Bäckström is currently sitting in 6th place on the team - which isn't a bad place to be for a team that is in first place in the NHL standings.


#ZeroClub


Carl Hagelin, Travis Boyd, Nick Jensen, Richard Panik, and Tyler Lewington have yet to score one goal for the Caps this season. We'll see how that plays out.

[30-AUG-2019] Pre-flections on the upcoming season...

Last season, Ovi put up 51 goals in 81 games played, his one missed game, a one-game suspension for not playing in the All-Star game (Bo-GUS!) That brought our hero's total to 658 goals in 1,084 games played.

Ovi has been remarkably consistent in games played, playing no fewer than 67 games in each of his full seasons since 2005-06 (the lone exception was the 48-game lockout-shortened 2012-2013 season).  In that time, he also has 247 power play goals, 4 short-handed goals, and 107 game winning goals.

I will say right now, over a month before the season starts, I think this may be one more 50-goal season for Ovi. He'll have no fewer than 40, and may break 50. I believe, right now, that he will also take home the Rocket Richard trophy for a record-setting 9th time. 

01 - Wayne Gretzky............894 G - 236
02 - Gordie Howe..............801 G - 143
03 - Jaromir Jagr.............766 G - 108
04 - Brett Hull...............741 G -  83
05 - Marcel Dionne............731 G -  73
06 - Phil Esposito............717 G -  59
--------------------------------------------Possible---
07 - Mike Gartner.............708 G -  50
--------------------------------------------Probable---
08 - Mark Messier.............694 G -  36
09 - Steve Yzerman............692 G -  34
10 - Mario Lemieux............690 G -  32
11 - Teemu Selanne............684 G -  26
12 - Luc Robataille...........668 G -  10
13 - Alex Ovechkin............658 G

If Ovi scores 40 goals this season, it will put him at 698 goals; 50 will put him at 708. For him to catch Esposito, he'd have to have his second-best season ever... I think a 59 goal season may be out of reach, even for Ovi. 

At the end of the season, though,  I see Ovi as having more goals than Mark Messier and maaaaaybe tied with or one more than Mike Gartner. More likely, he'll fall between the two.