[22-FEB-2019] #OviWatch

01 - Wayne Gretzky    - 894 G in 1487 GP +244
02 - Gordie Howe      - 801 G in 1767 GP +151
03 - Jaromír Jágr     - 765 G in 1714 GP +115
04 - Brett Hull       - 741 G in 1269 GP + 91
05 - Marcel Dionne    - 731 G in 1348 GP + 81
06 - Phil Esposito    - 717 G in 1282 GP + 67
07 - Mike Gartner     - 708 G in 1432 GP + 58
08 - Mark Messier     - 694 G in 1756 GP + 44
09 - Steve Yzerman    - 692 G in 1514 GP + 42
10 - Mario Lemieux    - 690 G in  915 GP + 40
11 - Teemu Selänne    - 684 G in 1451 GP + 34
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12 - Luc Robataille   - 667 G in 1431 GP + 17 possible
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13 - Brendan Shanahan - 656 G in 1431 GP +  6 probable
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14 - Alex Ovechkin    - 650 G in 1063 GP
15 - Dave Andreychuk  - 640 G in 1639 GP

Another night, another milestone. Ovi hit his 650th goal last night against the Toronto Maple Leafs, beating goaltender Frederik Andersen like he was mired in molasses. Another one-timer, from a crisp pass from John Carlson, and just like that, the Caps were up 1-0. They would go on to win the game 3-2. 

Ovi is now just six goals behind Brendan Shanahan, and 7 goals from another 50-goal season. He now sits a mere 244 goals behind Gretzky. Though his pace has slacked off from the torrid start of the season, with 22 games remaining in the season, here are the numbers:

43/60 = 0.716 * 82 = 58.766

So he could still conceivably hit 60 goals this season. Selanne doesn't look likely, but then, he didn't look likely to begin with this season. Robataille is still possible, if Ovi hits the back of the net 17 more times in the next 22 games.

17/22 = 0.773 so it's just a little bit over his current pace... and I've always said never to bet against Ovi. It's kinda like betting against the house in Las Vegas. 

So. If Ovi scores 60 this year, that will put him at 667 goals, and a tie with Robataille. Poetry, huh? 

The next couple of years will be tricky.

2019-20: 50 goals next year would put him at 717, tied with Esposito at #6
2020-21: 45 goals the following year would put him at 762, ahead of Brett Hull for #4, and behind Jagr for #3.
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2021-22: 40 goals the year after that?  792 puts him ahead of Jagr and behind Gordie Howe.
2022-23: 35 goals the year after that? 827, ahead of Howe for #2.
2023-24: 30 goals the year after that? 857
2024-25: 25 goals? 882
2025-26: 20 goals? 902

So in 7 seasons, Ovi could surpass Gretzky, even dropping off 5 goals per year off his total. Is that math likely? I don't know; I'm neither a stats geek nor anything other than a fan. 

But will Ovi re-sign with the Caps when his contract ends? There is an event coming in 2022 that will either make or break that decision. 

BEIJING 2022

If the NHL withholds players from the 2022 Olympic Games, then Ovi will almost certainly go home to play for the KHL. His dream of an Olympic medal is the one thing left to fulfill. Catching Gretzky? That's a low, low second or third or fourth place to winning an Olympic gold medal. Any color medal, really. 

The NHL wants a market in China. But will that be enough? Will Gary Bettman, lawyer, and lockout specialist force Ovi to choose between continuing his NHL career and playing for Russia? 

If he does, it's going to really piss a lot of people off.