[27-DEC-2022] #OviWatch... And then there was only #99

When Our Hero Alex Ovechkin scored his 798th, 799th, and 800th goals (and a hat trick), I was ecstatic for him, but when he scored 801st and 802nd goals against Winnipeg, giving him 22 goals over 36 games this season, I found myself bouncing off the walls for days. Today, the Caps are in New York taking on the Rangers, and I have no doubt they will be gunning for the Captain. I'm still bouncing off the walls!

At .611 goals per game this season, Ovi is on pace to score 50 again... his goals/game average for his career is .612. 

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +92
Alex Ovechkin        1310      802

If Ovi gets to 50 goals this season, it will put him at 830 goals in 1,356 games. 

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +64
Alex Ovechkin        1310      830

On November 9, 2015, I went out on a limb and said I believed Ovi would beat Gretzky's record one day. At the time, Ovi had only 483 goals. Now, I could not have predicted two seasons shortened by the COVID-19 pandemic (grumble), but at the time, I was just about the only hockey blogger talking about it. Today, that has all changed; it started last season, and now, it's the talk of the hour: it's not if Ovi will catch and surpass Gretzky; it's when. 

Today, I am going to go way out on a limb. 

Gretzky played in 1,487 games in his illustrious career. Ovi has played in 1,310 and has 176 games to catch Gretzky to do it faster than Gretzky did. 

There are 46 games left this season. Add 82 games for 2023-24, and 48 games for 2024-25 for the total of 176 games. If Ovi keeps up his .611 goals per game, he will be on pace to score 107 goals over those 176 games, taking his career total on game 48 of his 2024-25 season to 909. 

Yes, I believe that Ovi can do it faster than Gretzky did. 

Now, to check my math:

22/36 = .611

82+46+48=176

176 * .611 = 107.536

802 + 107 = 909. 

My blog isn't one of the ones the big guys - Japers' Rink, Russian Machine Never Breaks - ever picks up on. It's quiet, and I'm probably its only reader. I don't publish regularly, but I wanted to get this out there in front of whoever happens across my blog. What am I going on here? Sheer gut instinct. I'm not a statistician; I have to redo my numbers repeatedly to check myself. But my gut instincts have not been bad over the years... so we'll see.

It's December 27, 2022, and I say Ovi will beat Gretzky's record and take fewer games than Gretzky played to do it.