When the 2022-23 season ended, with the Caps missing the playoffs, it was disappointing, but Our Hero, Alex Ovechkin, is now #2 all-time for goals, with 822.
Player GP Goals vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky 1487 894 +70
Alex Ovechkin 1310 822
My prediction for 2023-24 is that Ovi will score 45 goals.
In the all-time points race, Ovi sits just behind Villain Sidney Crosby, who has gotten most of his points from assists. They are mutually 16th and 15th all-time.
Player GP Points vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky 1487 2857 +1390
Jaromir Jagr 1733 1921 +454
Mark Messier 1756 1887 +420
Gordie Howe 1767 1850 +383
Ron Francis 1731 1798 +331
Marcel Dionne 1348 1771 +304
Steve Yzerman 1514 1755 +288
Mario Lemieux 915 1723 +256
Joe Sakic 1378 1641 +174
Phil Esposito 1282 1590 +123
Ray Bourque 1612 1579 +112
Joe Thornton 1714 1539 +72
Mark Recchi 1652 1533 +66
Paull Coffey 1409 1531 +64
Sidney Crosby 1190 1485 +18
Alex Ovechkin 1347 1467
Assuming that both Ovi and Sid play a full 82 games next season:
In 2023-24:
Sid's Points/game career = .801 * 82 = 65 points
Ovi's Points/game career = .918 * 82 = 75 points
Sid will end up with ~1550 points, putting him above Joe Thornton
Ovi will end up with ~1542 points, putting him above Joe Thornton, but still below Sid - for now.
In 2024-25:
Assuming roughly the same points/game for both:
Sid 1550+65 = 1615
Ovi 1542+75 = 1617
Both players will surpass Phil Esposito, and Ovi will surpass Sid.
In 2026-27:
Sid 1615+65 = 1680
Ovi 1617+75 = 1692
The place on the map will remain the same, but the gap will spread between the two players.
Going back to goals: 2023-24
If Ovi plays in all 82 games this season, and scores goals at his career pace of .627 goals/game, he will score 51 goals, which is higher than my estimate.
1347+82 = 1429 games played
822+51 = 873 (if average goals/game holds)
822+45 = 867 (if my prediction holds)
In 2024-25, I believe I will put my prediction at 40 goals/game.
Games played at start of season: 1429
Average goals/game career puts him at 50 goals/game.
1429+82=1511
873+50=923 (if average goals/game holds)
867+40=907 (if my prediction holds)
In either case, Ovi will surpass Gretzky in 2024-25, AND BY A WIDE MARGIN!
In 2025-26, I will put my prediction at 30 goals/game.
Games played at start of season: 1511
Average goals/game:
923/1511=.610
907/1511=.600
923+50=973 (if average goals/game holds)
907+30=937 (if my prediction holds)
