Wednesday, September 13, 2023

[13-SEP-2023] #OviWatch: Pre-season predictions

When the 2022-23 season ended, with the Caps missing the playoffs, it was disappointing, but Our Hero, Alex Ovechkin, is now #2 all-time for goals, with 822. 

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi

Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +70

Alex Ovechkin        1310      822

My prediction for 2023-24 is that Ovi will score 45 goals. 

In the all-time points race, Ovi sits just behind Villain Sidney Crosby, who has gotten most of his points from assists. They are mutually 16th and 15th all-time.


Player                GP        Points    vs. Ovi

Wayne Gretzky        1487        2857    +1390

Jaromir Jagr         1733        1921    +454 

Mark Messier         1756        1887    +420

Gordie Howe          1767        1850    +383

Ron Francis          1731        1798    +331

Marcel Dionne        1348        1771    +304

Steve Yzerman        1514        1755    +288

Mario Lemieux         915        1723    +256

Joe Sakic            1378        1641    +174

Phil Esposito        1282        1590    +123

Ray Bourque          1612        1579    +112

Joe Thornton         1714        1539    +72

Mark Recchi          1652        1533    +66

Paull Coffey         1409        1531    +64

Sidney Crosby        1190        1485    +18

Alex Ovechkin        1347        1467        

Assuming that both Ovi and Sid play a full 82 games next season:

In 2023-24:

Sid's Points/game career    = .801 * 82 = 65 points

Ovi's Points/game career    = .918 * 82 = 75 points

Sid will end up with ~1550 points, putting him above Joe Thornton

Ovi will end up with ~1542 points, putting him above Joe Thornton, but still below Sid - for now.

In 2024-25:

Assuming roughly the same points/game for both:

Sid    1550+65 = 1615

Ovi    1542+75 = 1617

Both players will surpass Phil Esposito, and Ovi will surpass Sid.

In 2026-27:

Sid    1615+65 = 1680

Ovi    1617+75 = 1692

The place on the map will remain the same, but the gap will spread between the two players.

Going back to goals: 2023-24

If Ovi plays in all 82 games this season, and scores goals at his career pace of .627 goals/game, he will score 51 goals, which is higher than my estimate. 

1347+82 = 1429 games played

822+51 = 873 (if average goals/game holds)

822+45 = 867 (if my prediction holds)

In 2024-25, I believe I will put my prediction at 40 goals/game.

Games played at start of season: 1429

Average goals/game career puts him at 50 goals/game.

1429+82=1511

873+50=923 (if average goals/game holds)

867+40=907 (if my prediction holds)

In either case, Ovi will surpass Gretzky in 2024-25, AND BY A WIDE MARGIN!

In 2025-26, I will put my prediction at 30 goals/game.

Games played at start of season: 1511

Average goals/game:

923/1511=.610

907/1511=.600

923+50=973 (if average goals/game holds)

907+30=937 (if my prediction holds)


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