[06-SEP-2024] #OviWatch #2024-25 #Predictions

When I read through the translation of an interview Ovi gave about his plans to move back to Russia when his hockey career ended, it made me sad... Russia, with their unjust invasion of Ukraine? Good God, WHY?! But, as he said, Russia is his home... he isn't a political creature, so he says, though he is a friend to Russia's dictator, Vladimir Putin, and, well... there's a limit to what he can say in public. His family lives in Russia, under Putin's dictatorship, and we know what Putin is capable of... why would he want to go back to THAT? I wish to God I knew... Ovi was born in the USSR. Most Russian players, as far as I can tell, don't really participate in Pride events during the hockey season, but I don't know if that is a reflection of their true feelings or a reflection of their projected feelings while living under a dictator. He could raise his sons here, where they could grow up free... he's wealthy, he's the most successful hockey goal scorer of our age. Why Russia? But, of course,  his mother lives there, a widow, and he loves his mother dearly. I can see why she wouldn't want to change, after living and breathing Russia her entire life. Ovi has spent more than half of his playing hockey for the Capitals, and considers Washington, DC to be his second home. It makes me sad. I have some hopes for Russia to come out of their obsession with having Putin in charge... all of the death coming from the invasion of Ukraine... but most of the people in Russia believe Putin's propaganda: Ukraine is evil. Ukraine is Fascist. Ukraine is... a place we want because of its lithium, its arable land, its wheat... Putin is a monster. I don't want Ovi to be. I just want my hockey hero to be a hockey hero... but Putin's cloud is over his head.

Ah, enough of politics... on to the important stuff.

Ovi finished last season with 31 goals, largely because he only started scoring about 36 games from the end of the season. Why this happened, I don't know. New coach, the loss of his long-time assist partner Nick Backstrom, his own age starting to catch up with him... doesn't matter; it happened. 

Player        Games Played  Goals     Difference
Wayne Gretzky    1487        894        +41
Alex Ovechkin    1426        853        

Ovi needs 41 goals to tie, 42 goals to break Gretzky's all-time record. Can it happen this season? Only time will tell... Will he retire immediately, or will he try to score six more goals after breaking Gretzky's record to get to the first and only NHL player with 900 goals? I don't want the Ovi era to end... is it because he's so exciting to watch? But I am starting this season with a sense of... depression, I think? The war in Ukraine, the idea of Ovi wanting to go to a home that is under the thumb of a dictator when he stops playing for the Caps... I don't know. I'm just.... not all that excited this year, about hockey, or anything else.

I hope to Christ Harris wins in November. If the wannabe dictator does, I'm going to Iceland. 

[17-APR-2024] #OviWatch: Entering the Post Season after last year's miss...

Ovi started the season with a goal pace that would hold him to a total of 34 goals for the season after his scoring picked back up in the second half, but leaving him tied with Lucas Raymond (Detroit RedWings), Yegor Sharangovich (Calgary Flames), and Jordan Kyrou (St. Louis Blues) for 36th in league scoring, but that is OK!

Ovi now stands at 853 goals in his illustrious career, from a season marred by the loss of long-time partner Nicklas Bäckström, who was unable to return to the ice at the level he wanted to play after his hip resurfacing surgery last year. It wasn't an unexpected loss, but it did kick our hero in the teeth, and probably hard, especially following so close on the death of his father, Mikhail, last year. For now, Bäckström is on long-term injured reserve, but who knows? Stranger things have happened... like the Caps making the playoffs this year! Who knows? Nicky might one day make his return, just for a couple of games, to assist Ovi to the all-time goal scoring record one day.

Player        Games Played  Goals     Difference
Wayne Gretzky    1487        894        +44
Alex Ovechkin    1426        853        

44 goals with two more full seasons on Ovi's contract? Even at 31 goals a year, he will have 915 goals when his contract ends! Career, his goals per game is nearly 0.6 (0.5981), scarcely behind Gretzky's 0.6012.

As for the points race... well, Villain Sidney Crosby jumped a few spots this season (but the Penguins didn't make the Big Show, so there is that!) Ovi and Sid are the only active players in the top 15 all time points scorers. 

Player        Games Played  Points   Difference   PPG    

Wayne Gretzky    1487        2857    +1307        1.921

Jaromir Jagr     1733        1921    + 371        1.108

Mark Messier     1756        1887    + 337        1.074        

Gordie Howe      1767        1850    + 300        1.054

Ron Francis      1731        1798    + 248        1.039

Marcel Dionne    1348        1771    + 221        1.313

Steve Yzerman    1514        1755    + 205        1.133

Mario Lemieux     915        1723    + 173        1.883

Joe Sakic        1378        1641    +  91        1.191

Sidney Crosby    1271        1594    +  44        1.254 (92/81=1.136)

Phil Esposito    1282        1590    +  40        1.240

Ray Bourque      1612        1579    +  29        0.979

Alex Ovechkin    1426        1550                 1.086 (65/79=0.823)

Joe Thornton     1714        1539    -  11        0.897

Sid outperformed Ovi this season, but hey... the Penguins are on the outside looking into the playoffs, and that, in the end, is what is most important to Ovechkin. 

My prediction put Sid with 1550 points - what Ovi ended up with this year, and put Ovi with 1542 points, so both players outperformed my prediction, but Ovi's slow start really hurt. Thankfully, it didn't hurt the team as badly! Ovi did overtake Joe Thornton, as did Crosby, whose 92 points also overtook both Ray Bourque and Phil Esposito in a damn good season.

I'm not going to troll the Penguins anymore for missing the playoffs; it really did come right down to the last game, but the Caps beat the Flyers, and squeaked in, and the Pens, with one game remaining, cannot catch them... neither, for that matter, can the Flyers.

And so, with one last game on the schedule for some teams, the hunt for Lord Stanley's Beer Mug will begin very soon... and the grid is already locked down. The Caps face the Presidents' Trophy-winning Rangers in Round 1. 

I am not going to try and do statistics beyond "who has the most goals/points, etc." - and pray.

Hail Rocket, full of goals,

The puck is with thee!

Blessed art thou among scorers,

And blessed is the fruit of they stick, goals!

Holy Rocket, scorer divine,

Pray for our Capitals,

Now, and at the hour of puck drop.

Saint Jacques of the First Mask,

Defend us on the ice!

Be our protection against the goals of our enemies

And do thou, o Prince of Goaltenders

By the power of thy stick

Cast from the goal mouth all Rangers' pucks,

Protect us from 'own goals' and keep our net safe

From those seeking the end of our playoffs.

AMEN!

[13-SEP-2023] #OviWatch: Pre-season predictions

When the 2022-23 season ended, with the Caps missing the playoffs, it was disappointing, but Our Hero, Alex Ovechkin, is now #2 all-time for goals, with 822. 

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi

Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +70

Alex Ovechkin        1310      822

My prediction for 2023-24 is that Ovi will score 45 goals. 

In the all-time points race, Ovi sits just behind Villain Sidney Crosby, who has gotten most of his points from assists. They are mutually 16th and 15th all-time.

Player                GP        Points    vs. Ovi

Wayne Gretzky        1487        2857    +1390

Jaromir Jagr         1733        1921    +454 

Mark Messier         1756        1887    +420

Gordie Howe          1767        1850    +383

Ron Francis          1731        1798    +331

Marcel Dionne        1348        1771    +304

Steve Yzerman        1514        1755    +288

Mario Lemieux         915        1723    +256

Joe Sakic            1378        1641    +174

Phil Esposito        1282        1590    +123

Ray Bourque          1612        1579    +112

Joe Thornton         1714        1539    +72

Mark Recchi          1652        1533    +66

Paull Coffey         1409        1531    +64

Sidney Crosby        1190        1485    +18

Alex Ovechkin        1347        1467        

Assuming that both Ovi and Sid play a full 82 games next season:

In 2023-24:

Sid's Points/game career    = .801 * 82 = 65 points

Ovi's Points/game career    = .918 * 82 = 75 points

Sid will end up with ~1550 points, putting him above Joe Thornton

Ovi will end up with ~1542 points, putting him above Joe Thornton, but still below Sid - for now.

In 2024-25:

Assuming roughly the same points/game for both:

Sid    1550+65 = 1615

Ovi    1542+75 = 1617

Both players will surpass Phil Esposito, and Ovi will surpass Sid.

In 2026-27:

Sid    1615+65 = 1680

Ovi    1617+75 = 1692

The place on the map will remain the same, but the gap will spread between the two players.

Going back to goals: 2023-24

If Ovi plays in all 82 games this season, and scores goals at his career pace of .627 goals/game, he will score 51 goals, which is higher than my estimate. 

1347+82 = 1429 games played

822+51 = 873 (if average goals/game holds)

822+45 = 867 (if my prediction holds)

In 2024-25, I believe I will put my prediction at 40 goals/game.

Games played at start of season: 1429

Average goals/game career puts him at 50 goals/game.

1429+82=1511

873+50=923 (if average goals/game holds)

867+40=907 (if my prediction holds)

In either case, Ovi will surpass Gretzky in 2024-25, AND BY A WIDE MARGIN!

In 2025-26, I will put my prediction at 30 goals/game.

Games played at start of season: 1511

Average goals/game:

923/1511=.610

907/1511=.600

923+50=973 (if average goals/game holds)

907+30=937 (if my prediction holds)

[27-DEC-2022] #OviWatch... And then there was only #99

When Our Hero Alex Ovechkin scored his 798th, 799th, and 800th goals (and a hat trick), I was ecstatic for him, but when he scored 801st and 802nd goals against Winnipeg, giving him 22 goals over 36 games this season, I found myself bouncing off the walls for days. Today, the Caps are in New York taking on the Rangers, and I have no doubt they will be gunning for the Captain. I'm still bouncing off the walls!

At .611 goals per game this season, Ovi is on pace to score 50 again... his goals/game average for his career is .612. 

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +92
Alex Ovechkin        1310      802

If Ovi gets to 50 goals this season, it will put him at 830 goals in 1,356 games. 

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +64
Alex Ovechkin        1310      830

On November 9, 2015, I went out on a limb and said I believed Ovi would beat Gretzky's record one day. At the time, Ovi had only 483 goals. Now, I could not have predicted two seasons shortened by the COVID-19 pandemic (grumble), but at the time, I was just about the only hockey blogger talking about it. Today, that has all changed; it started last season, and now, it's the talk of the hour: it's not if Ovi will catch and surpass Gretzky; it's when. 

Today, I am going to go way out on a limb. 

Gretzky played in 1,487 games in his illustrious career. Ovi has played in 1,310 and has 176 games to catch Gretzky to do it faster than Gretzky did. 

There are 46 games left this season. Add 82 games for 2023-24, and 48 games for 2024-25 for the total of 176 games. If Ovi keeps up his .611 goals per game, he will be on pace to score 107 goals over those 176 games, taking his career total on game 48 of his 2024-25 season to 909. 

Yes, I believe that Ovi can do it faster than Gretzky did. 

Now, to check my math:

22/36 = .611

82+46+48=176

176 * .611 = 107.536

802 + 107 = 909. 

My blog isn't one of the ones the big guys - Japers' Rink, Russian Machine Never Breaks - ever picks up on. It's quiet, and I'm probably its only reader. I don't publish regularly, but I wanted to get this out there in front of whoever happens across my blog. What am I going on here? Sheer gut instinct. I'm not a statistician; I have to redo my numbers repeatedly to check myself. But my gut instincts have not been bad over the years... so we'll see.

It's December 27, 2022, and I say Ovi will beat Gretzky's record and take fewer games than Gretzky played to do it. 

[12-DEC-2022] #OviWatch at 30 games played

Our Hero, Alex Ovechkin, now has 797 goals at (17/30) games played this season; he has not missed a game so far. The Caps' record is less than stellar so far this year, but they have just won their fourth in a row - a good streak to keep building on! 

Here's where he stacks up now:

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +97
Gordie Howe          1767      801        + 4
Alex Ovechkin        1304      797

I'm really rooting for Ovi this season! He is scoring at a rate of 0.566 goals per game, which puts him on pace for 46 goals this season, if he plays all 82 games. If he hits that, he will be at 826 career goals, well ahead of Gordie Howe, and he will have to score only 68 goals over the next three seasons to catch Gretzky (22 goals per season, with one season at 23 goals). 

Prediction (2022-23) 45 goals:

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +69
Alex Ovechkin        1362      825

Prediction (2023-24) 35 goals:

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +34
Alex Ovechkin        1442      860 

Prediction (2024-25) 30 goals: 

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Alex Ovechkin        1522      895

Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        -1

Prediction (2025-26) 25 goals:

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Alex Ovechkin        1522      920

Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        -26

I admit my math isn't always perfect, and I've probably erred somewhere here, but I stand by my numbers: When Ovi retires he will have a minimum of 920 goals, leaving Wayne Gretzky in the dust. All 920+ will have been scored for the same team, too!

I'm also saying this: If the Caps get both Wilson and Backstrom back this season, we will go deep in the playoffs, and may well win our second Stanley Cup. I want it to happen, so I am willing them to come back healthy and ready to play! 

#LetsGoCaps!

[23-AUG-2022] #OviWatch Predictions for 2022-23

 At the close of the 2021-22 season, Our Hero Alex Ovechkin had scored FIFTY GOALS! FIFTY!!!! That puts him firmly in the #3 position of all time, with four years remaining on his contract, which ends in 2025-26. How does he stack up? Let's take a look...

Player                 GP     G      vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky         1487    894    +114
Gordie Howe           1767    801    + 21
Alex Ovechkin         1274    780 

Ovi needs 115 goals in four years. That's 28.75 goals a year...

In 2022-23, I will go on record as saying I believe Ovi will score a minimum of 40 goals in a minimum of 70 games played. 

Player                 GP     G      vs. Ovi

Wayne Gretzky        1487    894    + 74

Alex Ovechkin        1314    820

Ovi is definitely going to come out of this season, barring injury, ahead of Gordie Howe, and closer than he is now to Gretzky. 

Also, Uncle Vladimir can go suck rocks. 

[16-JUN-2022] #OviWatch #Backstrom #LetsGoCaps!

At the close of the 2021-22 season, Our Hero Alex Ovechkin had scored FIFTY GOALS! FIFTY!!!! That puts him firmly in the #3 position of all time, with four years remaining on his contract, which ends in 2025-26. How does he stack up? Let's take a look...

Player                 GP     G      vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky         1487    894    +114
Gordie Howe           1767    801    + 21
Alex Ovechkin         1274    780 

Ovi needs 115 goals in four years. That's 28.75 goals a year. Now, obviously, one can't score .75 of a goal, so we'll round up. If Ovi scores 30 goals a season for the remaining four years of his career, that would give him 120 goals, and put him firmly in first place. Then maybe Gretzky will give him a stick... 

Incidentally, last season, Ovi only played 77 games, putting his goals/game average at 0.64935, which is pretty damn good for a 38-year-old! 

On another note, the Russian invasion of Ukraine this year can't have helped his mental health, given his wife, his sons, and his parents were - and are - in Russia. Please don't try and tell me that he should speak out against the invasion, in favor of LGBTQIA+ rights, etc. when Putin could quite literally disappear his entire family without a trace if he chose to speak against him and nobody would dare to say a word. I just hope he can get out to come back next fall - and that his family comes with him this time. All of them. I am very much afraid that Putin will make him choose between his family and the NHL, and that would be awful for us as Caps fans, but for him as a human being. 

#Backstrom

Poor Nicky... that hip injury is just getting worse, and he's going to have to do something about it. Sure, he still has all the hockey smarts he ever did, but the speed just is not there, and I feel that with every step my 56-nearly-57-year-old-bones take. Surgery in the off season is a distinct possibility, and from what I am seeing on other sites, the return from the type of surgery he needs would be an long uphill battle. I know he and Ovi want to retire together, and I know as surely as I know my name that he wants to be on the ice when - not if, when - Ovi takes the crown away from Gretzky. I hope the hockey gods will let it happen, but more importantly, I hope Backstrom's health improves and allows him to continue playing that long...