On Saturday night, Alexander Mikhailovich Ovechkin made goal scoring history with his 483rd career goal in 772 games played, tying the record set by Sergei Viktorovich Fyodorov, who scored 483 goals in 1248 games.
Fyodorov (Fedorov, for the Americans) would like to see Ovechkin break his record tomorrow night in Detroit, where Fyodorov is being honored as a proud 2015 inductee to the NHL Hall of Fame. I'm looking forward to it, and to a whole lot more goals after that!
I'm going out on a limb...
The record all time for career goals by a left wing belongs to Luc Jean-Marie Robitaill at 668. Ovechkin, with his current 483 goals, has 185 goals to go to break that record. I say it's not only possible, but that before the end of his career, we will see Ovi own that record outright. He is currently ranked 9th out of all left wings in goals scored, according to NHL.com.
The record all time for career power play goals belongs to David John Andreychuk at 275. Ovechkin currently has 197 power play goals, and needs only 97 to break that record. I say Ovechkin will own that record before the end of his career, as well. Ovi is currently ranked 28th all time at power play goals, according to NHL.com.
Neither of those predictions really has me all that far out on a limb... but this one sure will!
The record all time for career goals belongs to Wayne Douglas Gretzky, a name almost every hockey fan knows. Gretzky scored 894 goals in his career, which lasted 1961 games. Yes, Gretzky did his scoring when high-scoring games were much more frequent than they are today; his single-season record is a mind-boggling 92 goals in an 80 game season (1981-82). That's disgusting, and by today's standards... Ovechkin's beast season was in 2007-08, when he scored 65 goals, a feat that was considered fairly outrageous at the time.
Ovechkin's contract with the Washington Capitals will end in the 2020-21 season, five years from now. He will be 35 years old. I expect Ovi will continue to play for a few years after that; if he plays until he is 38, as Gretzky did, that will be the 2023-24 season. 8 years to make up 411 goals.
51.375 goals per season.
Nobody, but nobody thinks Ovi can pull that off, and to be realistic, a 50 goal scorer over the age of 30? Johnny Bucyk is the oldest to pull it off, at age 35, followed by Jaromir Jagr at age 34. There aren't many, but Ovi is one of a kind... by far the greatest goal scorer of his generation.
http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/records/nhl-players-all-time-goals-leaders.html shows Ovechkin is now ranked 50th in goals scored in the NHL, career. That puts him on the same page as Gretzky.
Now, let's see how high he can climb...
This season, so far, Ovi has 8 goals in 12 games played. That puts him on pace for 54.66 games on the season, assuming he keeps up his current scoring rate. We'll round that up to 55.
55 goals will take Ovi to 530 goals career. That will jump him to 33rd on the list, ahead of Brian Trottier's 524, and behind Francis Mahovlich's 533.
Next season (2016-17), if Ovi scores 50, it will take him to 580 goals career. That will put him at 20th on the list, ahead of Mark Recchi (577) and behind Jarome Iginla (595).
If in 2017-18, Ovi scores 45, that will take him to 625 goals career. That will put him at 15th, tied with Joe Sakic (625) and just behind Dave Andreychuk (640).
Let's look to 2018-19 and give Ovi 40 goals, taking him to 665, enough for 13th, overtaking Brendan Shanahan (656) and just behind Luc Robataille (668).
If in 2019-20, Ovi scores 35 goals, that will put him at 700 goals career. That's good enough for 7th, jumping Mark Messier (694) and just behind Mike Gartner (708).
In 2020-21, Ovi's last season under contract (at the moment) for the Capitals, if he scores 30 goals, he will have 730 career. That's good enough for 5th, just ahead of Jaromir Jagr (728*) and just behind Marcel Dionne (731).
*Jagr is still active as well, and will probably play at least this season and next. He has 6 goals this season so far, in 12 games played.
In 2021-22, we'll give him 25 goals, taking him to 755 career. 3rd place, ahead of Brett Hull (741) and behind Gordie Howe (801).
In 2022-23, we'll give him 20 goals. He'll fall short of Gordie Howe (801), with 775 goals career, let alone Gretzky's ridiculous 894! So how, Sal, do you think he could even remotely have a chance to beat The Great One's record? Is it even possible?!
In 2023-24, we'll give Ovi 15 goals. That puts him at 790, still short of Howe. 2024-25, 10 goals puts him at 800, STILL short of Howe. 2025-26? He'll be 40 years old. 5 goals puts him at 805, and finally he's ahead of Gordie Howe... and still 89 behind Gretzky. Whoa.
I don't know. Ovi would have to do the virtually impossible to break Gretzky's record. And my numbers are just a non-stats-geek gal dropping 5 off the total every year as Ovechkin gets older. My numbers have zero basis in reality; it's just me...
I think that if any player alive today is capable of eventually breaking Gretzky's goal scoring record, it's Alex Ovechkin. If Ovi, the greatest goal scorer of his generation, can't do it playing another 10 years in the NHL, it can't be done.
In real fantasy-land... like, what are you smoking and can I share fantasy-land...
2015-16 58 goals
2016-17 55 goals
2017-18 52 goals
2018-19 49 goals
2019-20 46 goals
2020-21 43 goals
2021-22 40 goals
2022-23 37 goals
2023-24 34 goals
2024-25 31 goals
2025-26 28 goals
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473 goals total ... that'd put him at 948 goals career.... madness? Can he do it?
Only time will tell...
I'd love to see it happen.
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