Tuesday, November 10, 2015

[10-Nov-2015] On Mike Green, Detroit, and Loyalty

The first Caps sweater I ever bought was a #52 Mike Green sweater. I remember buying it largely because I wasn't going to follow the crowd and get a #8 Alex Ovechkin sweater, but that Mike Green guy was pretty good. I was new to hockey at the time, so the special that Mike Green brought to the Caps was not as astonishing as it might have been otherwise.

Ray Bourque (Chris Bourque's daddy) with his 410 goals in 1612 games as a defenseman is arguably the best offensive defenseman there ever was, or ever will be. Not unlike the argument about Gretzky being the greatest goal scorer ever born - a point that only time will tell if it's true or not.

With 113 goals to his name, Mike Green sits at 71st among all defensemen in terms of goals. Among active players, he is 8th, with only names like Zdeno Chara (#1 with 170 in 1207 games played), Chris Pronger, Dan Boyle, etc. - with fewer games at 583 under his belt than any man ahead of him as of this time.

Do I believe Green can catch Bourque?

Maybe?

113/583 = .194
410/1612 = .254

Not bloody likely, though... 

OK, it'd  take a bloody miracle. 

Let's play some "What If" games, for fun on a rainy morning, to pass the time before tonight's Caps-Red Wings game, the first time Green faces Ovechkin on the other side of the dot. Ovi's said, tongue in cheek, that he'll slash Greenie's favorite sticks, but I'd think less of him as a hockey player and a person if he really meant it...

Green's best season was 2008-09, during which he scored 31 goals. He hasn't come close since, and only three times since that year has he hit double digits in goals. This year, so far, in 8 games played, he has 0 goals, 3 assists, and a -3 rating.

Injuries have plagued Green throughout his career; the last time he played a full 82 game schedule was in 2007-08, when he scored 18 goals.

Let's start at 15 goals for Green.

2015-16 - 15 goals would take him to 128 goals. That ties him with Glen Wesley, who scored 128 goals in 1457 games, and with Lubomir Visnovsky, who scored his 128 goals in 883 games. It puts him at 55th, right behind Bill Gadsby, at 130 goals in 1248 games.

2016-17 - 12 goals would take him to 140, enough to break into the top 50 defensemen, all time, in terms of goal scoring, placing him at 44th, ahead of Rob Ramage (139 in 1044), and behind David Babych (142 in 1195).

2017-18 - 9 goals would take him to 149, 38th place, tying him with Shea Weber (149 in 698) and James Patrick (149 in 1280).

2018-19 - 6 goals would take him to 155, tying him at 31st with Roman Hamrlik (155 in 1395), just behind Chris Pronger (157 in 1167).

2019-20 - 3 goals would take him to 158, which would put him above Pronger at 30th, and just below Sandis Ozolinsh (167 in 875).

Somehow... much as I love Mike Green... and I do still love Mike Green... I can't see this working out.

Even if Greenie managed 20 goals this year - it's still not likely...

2015-16 - 20 goals = 133 (50th with Richard Redmond, 133 in 711)
2016-17 - 17 goals = 150 (37th with Borje Salming, 150 in 1148)
2017-18 - 14 goals = 164 (30th, above Chris Pronger, 157 in 1167)
2018-19 - 11 goals = 175 (25th, above Scott Niedermayer, 172 in 1263)
2019-20 - 8 goals = 183 (24th, above Ron Greschner, 179 in 431)
2020-21 - 5 goals = 188 (23rd, above Chris Chelios, 185 in 763)
2021-22 - 2 goals = 190 (same place)

So yeah... I don't think it's possible for Mike Green to ever catch Ray Bourque. I'm not sure it's possible for any active player to catch Bourque. Zdeno Chara, who is approaching the end of his career at 1207 games, has 170 goals, and he is closest among active players. Even if Chara plays another 400 games, he would have to score 240 goals in that time, and he hasn't scored that in his first 1207 games... I'm pretty sure it's safe to call Bourque's record unbeatable.

But that doesn't mean I don't adore Mike Green as an awesome human being and an incredibly good hockey player! :<3

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