[06-SEP-2024] #OviWatch #2024-25 #Predictions

When I read through the translation of an interview Ovi gave about his plans to move back to Russia when his hockey career ended, it made me sad... Russia, with their unjust invasion of Ukraine? Good God, WHY?! But, as he said, Russia is his home... he isn't a political creature, so he says, though he is a friend to Russia's dictator, Vladimir Putin, and, well... there's a limit to what he can say in public. His family lives in Russia, under Putin's dictatorship, and we know what Putin is capable of... why would he want to go back to THAT? I wish to God I knew... Ovi was born in the USSR. Most Russian players, as far as I can tell, don't really participate in Pride events during the hockey season, but I don't know if that is a reflection of their true feelings or a reflection of their projected feelings while living under a dictator. He could raise his sons here, where they could grow up free... he's wealthy, he's the most successful hockey goal scorer of our age. Why Russia? But, of course,  his mother lives there, a widow, and he loves his mother dearly. I can see why she wouldn't want to change, after living and breathing Russia her entire life. Ovi has spent more than half of his playing hockey for the Capitals, and considers Washington, DC to be his second home. It makes me sad. I have some hopes for Russia to come out of their obsession with having Putin in charge... all of the death coming from the invasion of Ukraine... but most of the people in Russia believe Putin's propaganda: Ukraine is evil. Ukraine is Fascist. Ukraine is... a place we want because of its lithium, its arable land, its wheat... Putin is a monster. I don't want Ovi to be. I just want my hockey hero to be a hockey hero... but Putin's cloud is over his head.

Ah, enough of politics... on to the important stuff.

Ovi finished last season with 31 goals, largely because he only started scoring about 36 games from the end of the season. Why this happened, I don't know. New coach, the loss of his long-time assist partner Nick Backstrom, his own age starting to catch up with him... doesn't matter; it happened. 

Player        Games Played  Goals     Difference
Wayne Gretzky    1487        894        +41
Alex Ovechkin    1426        853        

Ovi needs 41 goals to tie, 42 goals to break Gretzky's all-time record. Can it happen this season? Only time will tell... Will he retire immediately, or will he try to score six more goals after breaking Gretzky's record to get to the first and only NHL player with 900 goals? I don't want the Ovi era to end... is it because he's so exciting to watch? But I am starting this season with a sense of... depression, I think? The war in Ukraine, the idea of Ovi wanting to go to a home that is under the thumb of a dictator when he stops playing for the Caps... I don't know. I'm just.... not all that excited this year, about hockey, or anything else.

I hope to Christ Harris wins in November. If the wannabe dictator does, I'm going to Iceland. 

[17-APR-2024] #OviWatch: Entering the Post Season after last year's miss...

Ovi started the season with a goal pace that would hold him to a total of 34 goals for the season after his scoring picked back up in the second half, but leaving him tied with Lucas Raymond (Detroit RedWings), Yegor Sharangovich (Calgary Flames), and Jordan Kyrou (St. Louis Blues) for 36th in league scoring, but that is OK!

Ovi now stands at 853 goals in his illustrious career, from a season marred by the loss of long-time partner Nicklas Bäckström, who was unable to return to the ice at the level he wanted to play after his hip resurfacing surgery last year. It wasn't an unexpected loss, but it did kick our hero in the teeth, and probably hard, especially following so close on the death of his father, Mikhail, last year. For now, Bäckström is on long-term injured reserve, but who knows? Stranger things have happened... like the Caps making the playoffs this year! Who knows? Nicky might one day make his return, just for a couple of games, to assist Ovi to the all-time goal scoring record one day.

Player        Games Played  Goals     Difference
Wayne Gretzky    1487        894        +44
Alex Ovechkin    1426        853        

44 goals with two more full seasons on Ovi's contract? Even at 31 goals a year, he will have 915 goals when his contract ends! Career, his goals per game is nearly 0.6 (0.5981), scarcely behind Gretzky's 0.6012.

As for the points race... well, Villain Sidney Crosby jumped a few spots this season (but the Penguins didn't make the Big Show, so there is that!) Ovi and Sid are the only active players in the top 15 all time points scorers. 

Player        Games Played  Points   Difference   PPG    

Wayne Gretzky    1487        2857    +1307        1.921

Jaromir Jagr     1733        1921    + 371        1.108

Mark Messier     1756        1887    + 337        1.074        

Gordie Howe      1767        1850    + 300        1.054

Ron Francis      1731        1798    + 248        1.039

Marcel Dionne    1348        1771    + 221        1.313

Steve Yzerman    1514        1755    + 205        1.133

Mario Lemieux     915        1723    + 173        1.883

Joe Sakic        1378        1641    +  91        1.191

Sidney Crosby    1271        1594    +  44        1.254 (92/81=1.136)

Phil Esposito    1282        1590    +  40        1.240

Ray Bourque      1612        1579    +  29        0.979

Alex Ovechkin    1426        1550                 1.086 (65/79=0.823)

Joe Thornton     1714        1539    -  11        0.897

Sid outperformed Ovi this season, but hey... the Penguins are on the outside looking into the playoffs, and that, in the end, is what is most important to Ovechkin. 

My prediction put Sid with 1550 points - what Ovi ended up with this year, and put Ovi with 1542 points, so both players outperformed my prediction, but Ovi's slow start really hurt. Thankfully, it didn't hurt the team as badly! Ovi did overtake Joe Thornton, as did Crosby, whose 92 points also overtook both Ray Bourque and Phil Esposito in a damn good season.

I'm not going to troll the Penguins anymore for missing the playoffs; it really did come right down to the last game, but the Caps beat the Flyers, and squeaked in, and the Pens, with one game remaining, cannot catch them... neither, for that matter, can the Flyers.

And so, with one last game on the schedule for some teams, the hunt for Lord Stanley's Beer Mug will begin very soon... and the grid is already locked down. The Caps face the Presidents' Trophy-winning Rangers in Round 1. 

I am not going to try and do statistics beyond "who has the most goals/points, etc." - and pray.

Hail Rocket, full of goals,

The puck is with thee!

Blessed art thou among scorers,

And blessed is the fruit of they stick, goals!

Holy Rocket, scorer divine,

Pray for our Capitals,

Now, and at the hour of puck drop.

Saint Jacques of the First Mask,

Defend us on the ice!

Be our protection against the goals of our enemies

And do thou, o Prince of Goaltenders

By the power of thy stick

Cast from the goal mouth all Rangers' pucks,

Protect us from 'own goals' and keep our net safe

From those seeking the end of our playoffs.

AMEN!

[13-SEP-2023] #OviWatch: Pre-season predictions

When the 2022-23 season ended, with the Caps missing the playoffs, it was disappointing, but Our Hero, Alex Ovechkin, is now #2 all-time for goals, with 822. 

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi

Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +70

Alex Ovechkin        1310      822

My prediction for 2023-24 is that Ovi will score 45 goals. 

In the all-time points race, Ovi sits just behind Villain Sidney Crosby, who has gotten most of his points from assists. They are mutually 16th and 15th all-time.

Player                GP        Points    vs. Ovi

Wayne Gretzky        1487        2857    +1390

Jaromir Jagr         1733        1921    +454 

Mark Messier         1756        1887    +420

Gordie Howe          1767        1850    +383

Ron Francis          1731        1798    +331

Marcel Dionne        1348        1771    +304

Steve Yzerman        1514        1755    +288

Mario Lemieux         915        1723    +256

Joe Sakic            1378        1641    +174

Phil Esposito        1282        1590    +123

Ray Bourque          1612        1579    +112

Joe Thornton         1714        1539    +72

Mark Recchi          1652        1533    +66

Paull Coffey         1409        1531    +64

Sidney Crosby        1190        1485    +18

Alex Ovechkin        1347        1467        

Assuming that both Ovi and Sid play a full 82 games next season:

In 2023-24:

Sid's Points/game career    = .801 * 82 = 65 points

Ovi's Points/game career    = .918 * 82 = 75 points

Sid will end up with ~1550 points, putting him above Joe Thornton

Ovi will end up with ~1542 points, putting him above Joe Thornton, but still below Sid - for now.

In 2024-25:

Assuming roughly the same points/game for both:

Sid    1550+65 = 1615

Ovi    1542+75 = 1617

Both players will surpass Phil Esposito, and Ovi will surpass Sid.

In 2026-27:

Sid    1615+65 = 1680

Ovi    1617+75 = 1692

The place on the map will remain the same, but the gap will spread between the two players.

Going back to goals: 2023-24

If Ovi plays in all 82 games this season, and scores goals at his career pace of .627 goals/game, he will score 51 goals, which is higher than my estimate. 

1347+82 = 1429 games played

822+51 = 873 (if average goals/game holds)

822+45 = 867 (if my prediction holds)

In 2024-25, I believe I will put my prediction at 40 goals/game.

Games played at start of season: 1429

Average goals/game career puts him at 50 goals/game.

1429+82=1511

873+50=923 (if average goals/game holds)

867+40=907 (if my prediction holds)

In either case, Ovi will surpass Gretzky in 2024-25, AND BY A WIDE MARGIN!

In 2025-26, I will put my prediction at 30 goals/game.

Games played at start of season: 1511

Average goals/game:

923/1511=.610

907/1511=.600

923+50=973 (if average goals/game holds)

907+30=937 (if my prediction holds)

[27-DEC-2022] #OviWatch... And then there was only #99

When Our Hero Alex Ovechkin scored his 798th, 799th, and 800th goals (and a hat trick), I was ecstatic for him, but when he scored 801st and 802nd goals against Winnipeg, giving him 22 goals over 36 games this season, I found myself bouncing off the walls for days. Today, the Caps are in New York taking on the Rangers, and I have no doubt they will be gunning for the Captain. I'm still bouncing off the walls!

At .611 goals per game this season, Ovi is on pace to score 50 again... his goals/game average for his career is .612. 

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +92
Alex Ovechkin        1310      802

If Ovi gets to 50 goals this season, it will put him at 830 goals in 1,356 games. 

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +64
Alex Ovechkin        1310      830

On November 9, 2015, I went out on a limb and said I believed Ovi would beat Gretzky's record one day. At the time, Ovi had only 483 goals. Now, I could not have predicted two seasons shortened by the COVID-19 pandemic (grumble), but at the time, I was just about the only hockey blogger talking about it. Today, that has all changed; it started last season, and now, it's the talk of the hour: it's not if Ovi will catch and surpass Gretzky; it's when. 

Today, I am going to go way out on a limb. 

Gretzky played in 1,487 games in his illustrious career. Ovi has played in 1,310 and has 176 games to catch Gretzky to do it faster than Gretzky did. 

There are 46 games left this season. Add 82 games for 2023-24, and 48 games for 2024-25 for the total of 176 games. If Ovi keeps up his .611 goals per game, he will be on pace to score 107 goals over those 176 games, taking his career total on game 48 of his 2024-25 season to 909. 

Yes, I believe that Ovi can do it faster than Gretzky did. 

Now, to check my math:

22/36 = .611

82+46+48=176

176 * .611 = 107.536

802 + 107 = 909. 

My blog isn't one of the ones the big guys - Japers' Rink, Russian Machine Never Breaks - ever picks up on. It's quiet, and I'm probably its only reader. I don't publish regularly, but I wanted to get this out there in front of whoever happens across my blog. What am I going on here? Sheer gut instinct. I'm not a statistician; I have to redo my numbers repeatedly to check myself. But my gut instincts have not been bad over the years... so we'll see.

It's December 27, 2022, and I say Ovi will beat Gretzky's record and take fewer games than Gretzky played to do it. 

[12-DEC-2022] #OviWatch at 30 games played

Our Hero, Alex Ovechkin, now has 797 goals at (17/30) games played this season; he has not missed a game so far. The Caps' record is less than stellar so far this year, but they have just won their fourth in a row - a good streak to keep building on! 

Here's where he stacks up now:

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +97
Gordie Howe          1767      801        + 4
Alex Ovechkin        1304      797

I'm really rooting for Ovi this season! He is scoring at a rate of 0.566 goals per game, which puts him on pace for 46 goals this season, if he plays all 82 games. If he hits that, he will be at 826 career goals, well ahead of Gordie Howe, and he will have to score only 68 goals over the next three seasons to catch Gretzky (22 goals per season, with one season at 23 goals). 

Prediction (2022-23) 45 goals:

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +69
Alex Ovechkin        1362      825

Prediction (2023-24) 35 goals:

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        +34
Alex Ovechkin        1442      860 

Prediction (2024-25) 30 goals: 

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Alex Ovechkin        1522      895

Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        -1

Prediction (2025-26) 25 goals:

Player               GP        Goals    vs. Ovi
Alex Ovechkin        1522      920

Wayne Gretzky        1487      894        -26

I admit my math isn't always perfect, and I've probably erred somewhere here, but I stand by my numbers: When Ovi retires he will have a minimum of 920 goals, leaving Wayne Gretzky in the dust. All 920+ will have been scored for the same team, too!

I'm also saying this: If the Caps get both Wilson and Backstrom back this season, we will go deep in the playoffs, and may well win our second Stanley Cup. I want it to happen, so I am willing them to come back healthy and ready to play! 

#LetsGoCaps!

[23-AUG-2022] #OviWatch Predictions for 2022-23

 At the close of the 2021-22 season, Our Hero Alex Ovechkin had scored FIFTY GOALS! FIFTY!!!! That puts him firmly in the #3 position of all time, with four years remaining on his contract, which ends in 2025-26. How does he stack up? Let's take a look...

Player                 GP     G      vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky         1487    894    +114
Gordie Howe           1767    801    + 21
Alex Ovechkin         1274    780 

Ovi needs 115 goals in four years. That's 28.75 goals a year...

In 2022-23, I will go on record as saying I believe Ovi will score a minimum of 40 goals in a minimum of 70 games played. 

Player                 GP     G      vs. Ovi

Wayne Gretzky        1487    894    + 74

Alex Ovechkin        1314    820

Ovi is definitely going to come out of this season, barring injury, ahead of Gordie Howe, and closer than he is now to Gretzky. 

Also, Uncle Vladimir can go suck rocks. 

[16-JUN-2022] #OviWatch #Backstrom #LetsGoCaps!

At the close of the 2021-22 season, Our Hero Alex Ovechkin had scored FIFTY GOALS! FIFTY!!!! That puts him firmly in the #3 position of all time, with four years remaining on his contract, which ends in 2025-26. How does he stack up? Let's take a look...

Player                 GP     G      vs. Ovi
Wayne Gretzky         1487    894    +114
Gordie Howe           1767    801    + 21
Alex Ovechkin         1274    780 

Ovi needs 115 goals in four years. That's 28.75 goals a year. Now, obviously, one can't score .75 of a goal, so we'll round up. If Ovi scores 30 goals a season for the remaining four years of his career, that would give him 120 goals, and put him firmly in first place. Then maybe Gretzky will give him a stick... 

Incidentally, last season, Ovi only played 77 games, putting his goals/game average at 0.64935, which is pretty damn good for a 38-year-old! 

On another note, the Russian invasion of Ukraine this year can't have helped his mental health, given his wife, his sons, and his parents were - and are - in Russia. Please don't try and tell me that he should speak out against the invasion, in favor of LGBTQIA+ rights, etc. when Putin could quite literally disappear his entire family without a trace if he chose to speak against him and nobody would dare to say a word. I just hope he can get out to come back next fall - and that his family comes with him this time. All of them. I am very much afraid that Putin will make him choose between his family and the NHL, and that would be awful for us as Caps fans, but for him as a human being. 

#Backstrom

Poor Nicky... that hip injury is just getting worse, and he's going to have to do something about it. Sure, he still has all the hockey smarts he ever did, but the speed just is not there, and I feel that with every step my 56-nearly-57-year-old-bones take. Surgery in the off season is a distinct possibility, and from what I am seeing on other sites, the return from the type of surgery he needs would be an long uphill battle. I know he and Ovi want to retire together, and I know as surely as I know my name that he wants to be on the ice when - not if, when - Ovi takes the crown away from Gretzky. I hope the hockey gods will let it happen, but more importantly, I hope Backstrom's health improves and allows him to continue playing that long... 

[27-Jul-2021] Wow... COVID sucks.

Welcome to 2021.

The Caps just re-signed our hero Alex Ovechkin to a five year deal!

At the end of the 2020-21 season, Ovi had scored a career total of 730 goals in 1,197 games. Nobody can say that 2019-20 or 2020-21 were normal seasons. 

So, where do we stand? 

Player                 GP     G      

Wayne Gretzky         1487   894 +164

Gordie Howe           1767   801 + 71

Jaromir Jagr          1733   766 + 36

Brett Hull            1269   741 + 11

Marcel Dionne         1348   731 +  1

Alex Ovechkin         1197   730

I think it is completely safe to say that Ovi will catch Marcel Dionne this season. If he plays all 82 games, I also believe Jagr's #3 position is in reach. Ovi's career average is .61 goals per game (OK, .609857); over an 82-game season, that amounts to 50 goals... Last season, he was a big chunk off that average, with 24 goals across 45 games, putting him at .533 goals/game. Over an 82-game season, that amounts to 43 goals. So, splitting the difference in a completely unscientific fashion, 46 goals still puts Ovi above Jagr at the end of the year. 

I believe if Ovi stays healthy this season, he can do it. 

With 165 goals to beat Gretzky and 5 years to score them, Ovi needs 33 goals per year. 

It's still within reach, but he'll have to work for it. And maybe in the process, we can win another cup or two. :-)

[05-FEB-2020] #OviWatch - The Great 8 is #8 and Climbing

Last night, Ovi put away his third hat trick - THIRD! in the last seven games! Add to that a pair of two-goal games, and we have a total of 14 goals in seven games, and Ovi is now sitting pretty with 40 goals on the season.


That puts his total at 698 goals. This means he needs fewer than 200 goals to catch Gretzky!

01 - Wayne Gretzky............894 G - 196
02 - Gordie Howe..............801 G - 103
03 - Jaromir Jagr.............766 G -  68
04 - Brett Hull...............741 G -  43
05 - Marcel Dionne............731 G -  33
06 - Phil Esposito............717 G -  19
--------------------------------------------Possible---
07 - Mike Gartner.............708 G -  10
--------------------------------------------Probable---
08 - Alex Ovechkin............698 G 

With his 40th goal of the season, Ovi now has eleven 40-goal seasons in his career. Next up, if he can do that another time? He'll tie Gretzky for the most 40-goal seasons in a career. Twice? He'll be undisputed #1 in his own right.

Ovi has played in 53 of the Caps' 54 games, due to a one-game suspension for skipping the All-Star game, probably a wise move on his part. Let's do some math.

40 / 53 = 0.754 * 81 = 61.132 for Ovi's current pace.

82 - 53 = 29 games remaining in the season

61 - 40 = 19 goals needed to hit 61

19 / 29 = 0.655 goals per game for the rest of the year

698 / 1137 = 0.614 career

If - and this is a HUGE if - Ovi can hit the back of the net 19 more times, that will put him with 717 goals, and tied with Phil Esposito, something that at the beginning of the season, I put down as vastly unlikely! 

If - and this is a HUGE if - Ovi can keep scoring at a pace only slightly hotter than his career average for the rest of the season, he will end the year with 61 goals, beating his second-best season of 56 goals, which he got in 2008-09. That's eleven years ago!

An even bigger if, and likely not going to happen, unless Ovi is seriously on a tear beyond any tear he has ever been on in the history of his Ovi-ness... 26 goals in 29 games? That's what he needs for 66 goals, and to best his 2007-08 season, where he got 65. That's CRAZY! I am in no way, shape, or form thinking it's even remotely possible, but... Ovi. 

66 - 40 =  26 goals needed to hit 66

26 / 29 =  0.897 goals per game for the rest of the year... not bloody likely!

[17-JAN-2020] #OviWatch

01 - Wayne Gretzky............894 G - 205
02 - Gordie Howe..............801 G - 112
03 - Jaromir Jagr.............766 G -  77
04 - Brett Hull...............741 G -  52
05 - Marcel Dionne............731 G -  42
06 - Phil Esposito............717 G -  28
--------------------------------------------Possible---
07 - Mike Gartner.............708 G -  19
--------------------------------------------Probable---
08 - Mark Messier.............694 G -   5
09 - Steve Yzerman............692 G -   3
10 - Mario Lemieux............690 G -   1
11 - Alex Ovechkin............689 G

One more goal, and Our Hero ties Mario Lemieux. I stand by what I said at the beginning of the season; by the end of the season, Ovi will have surpassed Mark Messier, and maybe Mike Gartner. Phil Esposito is still within the realm of possibility.  At .646 goals per game over an 82 game season, Ovi is on pace for 52-53 goals. He's got 31 in 48 games, so he'll have to work at it if he wants to catch Espo... but I have learned not to bet against the Great Eight, like... ever. 

[14-NOV-2019] 20 Game Report Card

#OviWatch


At the start of the season, Ovi had 658 goals. Since that time, he has scored 13 goals, sitting tied for 3rd in the league behind David Pastrnak (BOS-16G) and Leon Draisaitl (EDM-15G).


13 goals in 20 games is a .65 goals-per-game pace. Multiply that by a full 82 game season, and Ovi is on pace for 53 goals... so Mike Gartner is still inside the pace, 20 games in.


Next up, with 684 goals, is Teemu Selänne. Selänne was born in 1970 in Helsinki, Finland (on my 5th birthday, coincidentally), and began his career playing for Helsingin Jokerit (the Helsinki Jesters) in the SM-liiga. Jokerit, incidentally, is now a part of the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL), and is the first team from the Nordic countries to play in that league. He made his NHL debut with the (then) Winnipeg Jets on October 6, 1992. His 76 goals in his first NHL season set the record for rookies; however, he never again matched that total, playing for Winnipeg until February 6, 1996, when he was traded to the Anaheim (then) Mighty Ducks. In 2000-01, he was traded to the San Jose Sharks, where he played until the end of the 2003-04 season; the 2004-05 season was eliminated due to the lockout, and in 2005-06, Selänne returned to Anaheim, where he finished out his career with 1,451 NHL games played, 684 goals scored, 773 assists, and 1457 points. His number, which coincidentally, is 8, was retired by the Ducks on January 11, 2015.


In the 2014 Sochi Olympics, Selänne was named MVP as selected by the media, and the Finnish team both eliminated Russia from the tournament, then defeated the United States in the bronze medal game. He and his wife, Sirpa, have four children: Eemil, Eetu, Leevi, and Veera. They reside in southern California. He collects cars, and has raced in the World Rally Championship twice. He is owner, with Kevin Pratt, of the Selanne Steak Tavern, which has a positively drool-worthy (but expensive) menu, and is located in Laguna Beach, California.


Here's Ovi where he stands right now. My 2019-20 Pre-flections remain as-stated before the season began.


01 - Wayne Gretzky............894 G - 223
02 - Gordie Howe..............801 G - 130
03 - Jaromir Jagr.............766 G -  95
04 - Brett Hull...............741 G -  70
05 - Marcel Dionne............731 G -  60
06 - Phil Esposito............717 G -  46
--------------------------------------------Possible---
07 - Mike Gartner.............708 G -  37
--------------------------------------------Probable---
08 - Mark Messier.............694 G -  23
09 - Steve Yzerman............692 G -  21
10 - Mario Lemieux............690 G -  19
11 - Teemu Selanne............684 G -  13
12 - Alex Ovechkin............671 G
11 - Luc Robataille...........668 G


#NickyWatch


Nicklas Bäckström has quietly moved up the points standings to 118th overall. He's off his usual pace, with 15 points in 20 games played (4G, 11A), though that should pick up as the season continues. His 15 points have been doubled up by John Carlson, who is sitting at 30 (8G, 22A) points in 20 games played right now, and is kicking everyone's ass in that regard, including Ovi's!


The top 5 for the Caps, points-wise, are rounded out with Evgeny Kuznetsov (18 points in 17 games played (8G, 10A)), Jakub Vrana (17 points in 20 games played (8G, 17A)), and Tom Wilson (16 points in 20 games played (8G, 16A)).

Bäckström is currently sitting in 6th place on the team - which isn't a bad place to be for a team that is in first place in the NHL standings.


#ZeroClub


Carl Hagelin, Travis Boyd, Nick Jensen, Richard Panik, and Tyler Lewington have yet to score one goal for the Caps this season. We'll see how that plays out.

[30-AUG-2019] Pre-flections on the upcoming season...

Last season, Ovi put up 51 goals in 81 games played, his one missed game, a one-game suspension for not playing in the All-Star game (Bo-GUS!) That brought our hero's total to 658 goals in 1,084 games played.

Ovi has been remarkably consistent in games played, playing no fewer than 67 games in each of his full seasons since 2005-06 (the lone exception was the 48-game lockout-shortened 2012-2013 season).  In that time, he also has 247 power play goals, 4 short-handed goals, and 107 game winning goals.

I will say right now, over a month before the season starts, I think this may be one more 50-goal season for Ovi. He'll have no fewer than 40, and may break 50. I believe, right now, that he will also take home the Rocket Richard trophy for a record-setting 9th time. 

01 - Wayne Gretzky............894 G - 236
02 - Gordie Howe..............801 G - 143
03 - Jaromir Jagr.............766 G - 108
04 - Brett Hull...............741 G -  83
05 - Marcel Dionne............731 G -  73
06 - Phil Esposito............717 G -  59
--------------------------------------------Possible---
07 - Mike Gartner.............708 G -  50
--------------------------------------------Probable---
08 - Mark Messier.............694 G -  36
09 - Steve Yzerman............692 G -  34
10 - Mario Lemieux............690 G -  32
11 - Teemu Selanne............684 G -  26
12 - Luc Robataille...........668 G -  10
13 - Alex Ovechkin............658 G

If Ovi scores 40 goals this season, it will put him at 698 goals; 50 will put him at 708. For him to catch Esposito, he'd have to have his second-best season ever... I think a 59 goal season may be out of reach, even for Ovi. 

At the end of the season, though,  I see Ovi as having more goals than Mark Messier and maaaaaybe tied with or one more than Mike Gartner. More likely, he'll fall between the two.

 

[08-JUN-2018] Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? Am I only dreaming? Or is this burning an eternal flame?

I am bouncing off the walls. 

Last night... it finally happened! Alex Ovechkin has hoisted the Stanley Cup, and passed it to his teammates, his coach, and Uncle Ted. The Caps have drunk champagne from the chalice of victory! WHEW! It's been a long time coming!


And I can't believe I never posted this! 

#LetsGoCaps! #BackToBack! #BackToBack! #BackToBack!

[4-APR-2019] Revisiting an old post...

[10-Nov-2015] Let's talk about some more records...

Most overtime goals currently belongs to Jaromir Jagr, with 19, scored in 1562 games.

Ovechkin has 15 in his 772 games, good for third all  time, and tied with Mats Sundin (15 in 1346) and our old friend Sergei Fedorov (15 in 1248). I see Ovi easily eclipsing this mark in his career, especially now that overtime is 3-on-3 instead of 4-on-4...

Most game winning goals also belongs to Jagr, with 129 in 1562 games played.

Ovechkin has 81 in his 772 games, good for 24th place. I also see Ovi eclipsing this mark. He needs only 48 game winning goals to get there.

Most power play goals belongs to Joe Sakic, with 631 in 1378 games played.

Ovechkin is in 48th place, with 357 in his 772 games. He needs 274 more to catch Sakic, and I think he will do that as well...

Ovi has taken over most overtime goals, with 22 (and counting).

He's moved up to 7th place in GWGs, with 107, leaving him to need only 28 to eclipse Jagr's 135. Jagr has since retired, and there are no active players standing in Ovi's way.

And he's moved up to 4th place in PPGs, with 247, leaving him to need 27 to catch Andreychuk, again, with no active players in his way.

As for goals, in general, we already talked about that, but NHL.com is now indicating that Ovi actually wants to try to break Gretzky's record. I can't wait to see if he can do it. 

Never bet against Ovi. :-)  

Also, since the Caps play the Habs tonight... I hope this post isn't a jinx! 

[31-MAR-2019] #OviWatch #50Goals #51Goals

Last night against Tampa Bay, in a 6-3 victory, Our Hero scored his 50th and 51st goals of the 2018-19 season, with three games to go. (Only three??! Where did the season go??!)

01 - Wayne Gretzky    - 894 G in 1487 GP +236
02 - Gordie Howe      - 801 G in 1767 GP +144
03 - Jaromír Jágr     - 765 G in 1714 GP +107
04 - Brett Hull       - 741 G in 1269 GP + 84
05 - Marcel Dionne    - 731 G in 1348 GP + 74
06 - Phil Esposito    - 717 G in 1282 GP + 58
07 - Mike Gartner     - 708 G in 1432 GP + 50
08 - Mark Messier     - 694 G in 1756 GP + 36
09 - Steve Yzerman    - 692 G in 1514 GP + 34
10 - Mario Lemieux    - 690 G in  915 GP + 32
11 - Teemu Selänne    - 684 G in 1451 GP + 26
-----------------------------------------------------
12 - Luc Robataille   - 667 G in 1431 GP + 9 not likely
----------------------------------------------------- 
13 - Alex Ovechkin    - 658 G in 1079 GP
13 - Brendan Shanahan - 656 G in 1431 GP

Ovi is now in sole possession of 13th place all time. While it's not likely that he gets nine goals in the next three games, and I wouldn't bet on it, I wouldn't bet against it, either, given it's Ovi. I've learned not to bet against the Great 8.

As both RMNB and Japers' pointed out this last week, Ovi has had a remarkably consistent career: 328 goals in his first 540 games, 328 goals in his second 540 games. And as Twitter Tweeter @caleb_adams3 pointed out:

Gretzky's record: 894 goals Swap Gretzky's 8 and 9 and what do you get? 984 goals Ovi's new record: 328 * 3 = 984 goals 'Tis the prophecy. @caleb_adams3

If Ovi manages to play in another 540 games (535 games beyond the end of this season - that's roughly another 6-1/2 seasons) and scores 328 goals in that time period, the League will bow to him, and so will every mother's son on this planet, as the undisputed GOAT. 

As of today, Ovi is tied with Luc Robataille with 247 power play goals for 4th all time. 

01 - Dave Andreychuk - 274 PPG in 1639 GP +27
02 - Brett Hull      - 265 PPG in 1269 GP +18
03 - Teemu Selanne   - 255 PPG in 1451 GP + 8
04 - Alex Ovechkin   - 247 PPG in 1081 GP

In other milestones:

Nicklas Backstrom scored his 20th and 21st goals of the season last night, and T.J. Oshie scored his 24th and 25th goals of the season. Backstrom is the 7th Capital to score at least 20 goals this year (Kuznetsov-20, Backstrom-21, Connolly-22, Wilson-22, Vrana-23, Oshie-25, and Ovi-51). Not a bad haul, and though Carlson, with 13, is about as likely to hit 20 as Ovi is to hit 60, with only three games left... well, if they did it, it'd be one hell of a feat, wouldn't it?
 

  

[27-MAR-2019] #OviWatch and Other Milestones

Last night, facing Carolina, Ovi bagged his 49th goal of the season. He's tied Brendan Shanahan, with five games to go in the regular season. Next game  is also Carolina, on Thursday.

01 - Wayne Gretzky    - 894 G in 1487 GP +238
02 - Gordie Howe      - 801 G in 1767 GP +145
03 - Jaromír Jágr     - 765 G in 1714 GP +109
04 - Brett Hull       - 741 G in 1269 GP + 85
05 - Marcel Dionne    - 731 G in 1348 GP + 75
06 - Phil Esposito    - 717 G in 1282 GP + 61
07 - Mike Gartner     - 708 G in 1432 GP + 52
08 - Mark Messier     - 694 G in 1756 GP + 38
09 - Steve Yzerman    - 692 G in 1514 GP + 36
10 - Mario Lemieux    - 690 G in  915 GP + 34
11 - Teemu Selänne    - 684 G in 1451 GP + 28
-----------------------------------------------------
12 - Luc Robataille   - 667 G in 1431 GP + 11 not likely
----------------------------------------------------- 
13 - Alex Ovechkin    - 656 G in 1079 GP
13 - Brendan Shanahan - 656 G in 1431 GP

[8-MAR-2019] 14 games to go...

The playoffs are starting to shape up, just a teensy bit. 

I started my spreadsheet today, as I typically do this time of year. I would not bet on Ottawa, Detroit, or the Devils from New Jersey making the playoffs this year. I also wouldn't bet on the Ducks or the Kings, who have a handful more points than the basement-dwelling Sens. 

Poor, hapless Ottawa has played 68 games, and have only 52 points to show for it. Their 23-39-6 record is bad enough to put them in last place. The Kings aren't doing much  better, at 24-35-8 in 67 games played (56 points). But when it comes to goal differential, Anaheim is the one in the basement, with -58. 

Ouch.

The Caps have come a long way from 1974-75 with their 8-67-5 record. That season, the Caps scored 181 goals, and were scored on 446 times. They hold the record, one they never wanted, for the worst start in the NHL. 

The question this year is, can they go back to back, win another Stanley Cup? 

If the playoffs started today... 

Cripes. This playoff format stinks!

"The top seed in each division plays one of the wild-card teams in its conference. The division leader with the most points plays the wild-card team with the fewest points. The second and third seeds in each division face each other in the first round." (S/T ESPN.com). 

Tampa Bay is hands down the top seed in the Eastern Conference, and in the Atlantic Division. That gives them Montreal, currently 8th seed.

The Islanders are top seed in the Metropolitan Division. That gives them Carolina, currently the 7th seed.

Boston gets Toronto... Which sticks the Caps with the Penguins, ugh!

14 games remaining. 28 possible points. 

The first of those is tonight, when the Caps face the Devils.

New Jersey is, quite frankly, in trouble, injury-wise. 

• Pavel Zacha (C, 11G, 6A) is out from an upper-body injury. 
• John Quenneville ((C, 0G, 0A), first cousin, once removed of Joel) is day-to-day, with a hand injury.
• Kevin Rooney (C, 4G, 2A) is day-to-day, illness.
• Nico Hischier (C, 17G, 27A) is day-to-day, upper body.
• Kyle Palmieri (RW, 26G, 22A) is day-to-day, lower body.
• Nathan Bastian (RW, 1G, 0A) has an upper body injury. 
• Jesper Bratt (LW, 8 G, 25A) is out, lower body.
• Taylor Hall (LW, 11G, 26A) is out, knee surgery. 
• Miles Wood (LW, 8G, 13A) is out, fractured ankle.
• Mirco Mueller (D, 1G, 9A) is out, upper body (shoulder).
• Will Butcher (D, 4G, 20A) is day-to-day, upper body.

In a word? Ouch! 

So, for centers, the Devils have:

• Blake Coleman, 18G, 12A
• Michael McLeod, 0G, 0A
• Travis Zajac, 15G, 23A

By contrast, the Caps are icing their full roster. So, will they take the Devils seriously? Or will they coast. It's a damned good question... 

All About the Jersey calls Ovi the "Great Ape." 

*narrows eyes* We shall see. We. Shall. See. 

As a side note, I truly wish that Miroslav Satan had played at least one game for the Devils before he retired. He'd have been their natural captain!

[22-FEB-2019] #OviWatch

01 - Wayne Gretzky    - 894 G in 1487 GP +244
02 - Gordie Howe      - 801 G in 1767 GP +151
03 - Jaromír Jágr     - 765 G in 1714 GP +115
04 - Brett Hull       - 741 G in 1269 GP + 91
05 - Marcel Dionne    - 731 G in 1348 GP + 81
06 - Phil Esposito    - 717 G in 1282 GP + 67
07 - Mike Gartner     - 708 G in 1432 GP + 58
08 - Mark Messier     - 694 G in 1756 GP + 44
09 - Steve Yzerman    - 692 G in 1514 GP + 42
10 - Mario Lemieux    - 690 G in  915 GP + 40
11 - Teemu Selänne    - 684 G in 1451 GP + 34
-----------------------------------------------------
12 - Luc Robataille   - 667 G in 1431 GP + 17 possible
-----------------------------------------------------
13 - Brendan Shanahan - 656 G in 1431 GP +  6 probable
-----------------------------------------------------
14 - Alex Ovechkin    - 650 G in 1063 GP
15 - Dave Andreychuk  - 640 G in 1639 GP

Another night, another milestone. Ovi hit his 650th goal last night against the Toronto Maple Leafs, beating goaltender Frederik Andersen like he was mired in molasses. Another one-timer, from a crisp pass from John Carlson, and just like that, the Caps were up 1-0. They would go on to win the game 3-2. 

Ovi is now just six goals behind Brendan Shanahan, and 7 goals from another 50-goal season. He now sits a mere 244 goals behind Gretzky. Though his pace has slacked off from the torrid start of the season, with 22 games remaining in the season, here are the numbers:

43/60 = 0.716 * 82 = 58.766

So he could still conceivably hit 60 goals this season. Selanne doesn't look likely, but then, he didn't look likely to begin with this season. Robataille is still possible, if Ovi hits the back of the net 17 more times in the next 22 games.

17/22 = 0.773 so it's just a little bit over his current pace... and I've always said never to bet against Ovi. It's kinda like betting against the house in Las Vegas. 

So. If Ovi scores 60 this year, that will put him at 667 goals, and a tie with Robataille. Poetry, huh? 

The next couple of years will be tricky.

2019-20: 50 goals next year would put him at 717, tied with Esposito at #6
2020-21: 45 goals the following year would put him at 762, ahead of Brett Hull for #4, and behind Jagr for #3.
--------END CONTRACT--------
2021-22: 40 goals the year after that?  792 puts him ahead of Jagr and behind Gordie Howe.
2022-23: 35 goals the year after that? 827, ahead of Howe for #2.
2023-24: 30 goals the year after that? 857
2024-25: 25 goals? 882
2025-26: 20 goals? 902

So in 7 seasons, Ovi could surpass Gretzky, even dropping off 5 goals per year off his total. Is that math likely? I don't know; I'm neither a stats geek nor anything other than a fan. 

But will Ovi re-sign with the Caps when his contract ends? There is an event coming in 2022 that will either make or break that decision. 

BEIJING 2022

If the NHL withholds players from the 2022 Olympic Games, then Ovi will almost certainly go home to play for the KHL. His dream of an Olympic medal is the one thing left to fulfill. Catching Gretzky? That's a low, low second or third or fourth place to winning an Olympic gold medal. Any color medal, really. 

The NHL wants a market in China. But will that be enough? Will Gary Bettman, lawyer, and lockout specialist force Ovi to choose between continuing his NHL career and playing for Russia? 

If he does, it's going to really piss a lot of people off.