[08-Feb-2016] More #OviWatch

It's very rare when I find myself agreeing with Washington Post columnist Neil Greenberg. He's pretty much a raw stats guy, and I'm a gal who leads her stories with gut instinct. Yes, I've studied some journalism - back in the Dark Ages of the late 1980s - but this blog is a pure fan site, plain and simple. I have trouble wrapping my head around advanced numerical stats and quantitative analysis. That is why, when I read this article in the Washington Post, I effectively dropped my teeth on the floor.

"Ovechkin has already overtaken Gretzky during their age-30 season, 595 adjusted goals to 579. And that includes Gretzky playing an extra season in the NHL as a 19-year-old — Ovechkin didn’t make his NHL debut until he turned 20." ~Neil Greenberg

Yes, I said it earlier this season: I believe Ovi can surpass Gretzky - and I don't mean just with adjusted goals; I mean for real, with raw numbers. Yes, he needs to score 389 more goals in his career to get there, and yes, in this era, it is much more difficult to score goals. I'd love to see what his numbers would have been if we'd had Coach Trotz instead of Coach "I'm the Smartest" Oates for those two seasons... people - including Neil Greenberg, Stats Dude Extraordinaire - have said the odds were stacked against Ovi doing so (in 2011), and not to bet on the odds of Ovi scoring 50 again (in 2013, the season Ovi hit 51 goals, and followed up in the 2014-15 season with another 53). 


Even fancystats(tm) geeks like Neil are starting to say so. See?



I do not believe Ovi is done with the 50 goal seasons, either. He has 31 games left this year, and has 30 goals in his first 49 games played (he missed two games). That puts him needing another 20 goals in 30 games, and I believe he can do it.

It'll certainly be fun watching him try.